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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on MSCI?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on MSCI: -12.0 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
240.1%
Buy and hold
×25
CAGR
6.8%
Sharpe
0.23
Max drawdown
-61.5%
Trades
146
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×28×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyMSCI

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on MSCI: -12.0 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +240.1% versus ×25 for buy-and-hold, with 146 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -61.5%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #131 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MSCI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MSCI → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on MSCI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/msci

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.