FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on MTD?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on MTD: -8.5 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
975.5%
Buy and hold
×94
CAGR
8.6%
Sharpe
0.30
Max drawdown
-51.0%
Trades
213
Out of sample
—
Years
29
1×10×100×114×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyMTD

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on MTD: -8.5 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -0.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +975.5% versus ×94 for buy-and-hold, with 213 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -51.0%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  6. It ranks #75 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MTD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MTD → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on MTD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/mtd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.