FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on NVR?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on NVR: -6.2 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×110
Buy and hold
×616
CAGR
15.4%
Sharpe
0.53
Max drawdown
-66.3%
Trades
212
Out of sample
overfit
Years
33
1×10×100×940×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyNVR

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on NVR: -6.2 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +4.5 points a year.
  3. Total return ×110 versus ×616 for buy-and-hold, with 212 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -66.3%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #28 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NVR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NVR → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on NVR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/nvr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.