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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on PM?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on PM: -7.2 points a year over 18 years.

Total return
160.5%
Buy and hold
785.7%
CAGR
5.3%
Sharpe
0.15
Max drawdown
-42.1%
Trades
177
Out of sample
—
Years
18
1×4.9×200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyPM

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on PM: -7.2 points a year over 18 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -6.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +160.5% versus +785.7% for buy-and-hold, with 177 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -42.1%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #163 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PM over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PM → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on PM?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/pm

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.