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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?

Only invest above the 200-day average beats buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) by +3.8 points a year over 34 years.

Total return
×98
Buy and hold
×32
CAGR
14.6%
Sharpe
0.53
Max drawdown
-69.6%
Trades
5135
Out of sample
—
Years
34
1×10×100×111×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyCartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average beats buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) by +3.8 points a year over 34 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +3.8 points a year.
  3. Total return ×98 versus ×32 for buy-and-hold, with 5135 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -69.6%.
  5. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2009).
  6. It ranks #32 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/portfolio-spx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.