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Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on ERIE?

ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on ERIE: -8.4 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
209.7%
Buy and hold
×35
CAGR
3.7%
Sharpe
0.09
Max drawdown
-56.0%
Trades
954
Out of sample
partly
Years
31
1×10×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyERIE

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on ERIE: -8.4 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -6.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +209.7% versus ×35 for buy-and-hold, with 954 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -56.0%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #79 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ERIE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ERIE → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on ERIE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/erie

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.