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Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on FIX?

ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on FIX: -15.4 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
103.1%
Buy and hold
×121
CAGR
2.5%
Sharpe
0.10
Max drawdown
-67.0%
Trades
922
Out of sample
partly
Years
29
1×10×100×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyFIX

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on FIX: -15.4 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +103.1% versus ×121 for buy-and-hold, with 922 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -67.0%.
  6. It beat before 2012 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #82 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FIX over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FIX → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on FIX?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/fix

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.