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Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on HPE?

ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on HPE: -10.4 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
169.3%
Buy and hold
625.0%
CAGR
9.6%
Sharpe
0.32
Max drawdown
-57.4%
Trades
328
Out of sample
—
Years
11
1×4.4×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyHPE

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on HPE: -10.4 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -5.3 points a year.
  3. Total return +169.3% versus +625.0% for buy-and-hold, with 328 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -57.4%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2021).
  6. It ranks #63 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding HPE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on HPE → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on HPE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/hpe

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.