FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on KHC?

ADX: trade only in strong trends beats buy-and-hold on KHC by +0.7 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
-37.1%
Buy and hold
-42.2%
CAGR
-4.1%
Sharpe
-0.36
Max drawdown
-59.0%
Trades
314
Out of sample
—
Years
11
0.9×1×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyKHC

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends beats buy-and-hold on KHC by +0.7 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -18.4 points a year.
  3. Total return -37.1% versus -42.2% for buy-and-hold, with 314 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -59.0%.
  5. It beat before 2021 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #230 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding KHC over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on KHC → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on KHC?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/khc

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.