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Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on MPC?

ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on MPC: -4.9 points a year over 15 years.

Total return
×17
Buy and hold
×31
CAGR
20.4%
Sharpe
0.68
Max drawdown
-36.9%
Trades
487
Out of sample
—
Years
15
1×10×20122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyMPC

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on MPC: -4.9 points a year over 15 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +5.9 points a year.
  3. Total return ×17 versus ×31 for buy-and-hold, with 487 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -36.9%.
  5. It did not beat before 2019 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #8 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MPC over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MPC → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on MPC?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/mpc

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.