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Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on NVDA?

ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on NVDA: -11.8 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
×483
Buy and hold
×5 878
CAGR
25.1%
Sharpe
0.65
Max drawdown
-64.5%
Trades
839
Out of sample
partly
Years
28
1×10×100×1000×5878×20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyNVDA

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends does not beat buy-and-hold on NVDA: -11.8 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +16.4 points a year.
  3. Total return ×483 versus ×5 878 for buy-and-hold, with 839 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -64.5%.
  6. It beat before 2012 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #2 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NVDA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NVDA → · Full page for ADX: trade only in strong trends →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on NVDA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/nvda

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.