FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · ADX: trade only in strong trends · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on UAL?

ADX: trade only in strong trends beats buy-and-hold on UAL by +2.1 points a year over 21 years.

Total return
412.3%
Buy and hold
240.6%
CAGR
8.3%
Sharpe
0.29
Max drawdown
-71.6%
Trades
628
Out of sample
overfit
Years
21
1×5×2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyUAL

Findings

  1. ADX: trade only in strong trends beats buy-and-hold on UAL by +2.1 points a year over 21 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -2.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +412.3% versus +240.6% for buy-and-hold, with 628 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -71.6%.
  6. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2016).
  7. It ranks #43 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 5bea546c394a.

Exactly what was tested

Long while +DI(14) is above −DI(14); flat when −DI overtakes +DI. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding UAL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

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How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does ADX: trade only in strong trends work on UAL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 5bea546c394a. https://finaxion.app/en/research/adx-trend-filter/ual

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.