On AXON, 3 of 19 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
On AXON, 3 of 19 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is Supertrend: the line that changes colour: +4.6 points a year over buying and holding AXON. The worst is RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70): -33.2 points a year against buy-and-hold.
| Strategy | Return | Buy and hold | Excess (pts/yr) | Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr) | Out of sample | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend: the line that changes colour | ×2 874 | ×1 232 | +4.6% | +27.7% | overfit | 43 |
| The Turtles: 55-day breakout | ×1 474 | ×1 232 | +1.0% | +24.1% | partly | 79 |
| Ichimoku: buy above the cloud | ×1 232 | ×1 232 | +0.1% | +23.2% | partly | 257 |
| The MACD cross (12/26/9) | ×288 | ×1 232 | -7.4% | +15.7% | overfit | 430 |
| Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) | ×284 | ×1 232 | -7.4% | +15.7% | partly | 849 |
| Parabolic SAR: follow the dots | ×259 | ×1 232 | -7.9% | +15.2% | partly | 502 |
| Only invest above the 200-day average | ×252 | ×1 232 | -8.0% | +15.1% | partly | 159 |
| The golden cross (50/200) | ×139 | ×1 232 | -10.9% | +12.2% | overfit | 39 |
| ADX: trade only in strong trends | ×104 | ×1 232 | -12.3% | +10.8% | overfit | 784 |
| Wyckoff: buying the accumulation | ×71 | ×1 232 | -14.1% | +9.0% | overfit | 184 |
| “Sell in May and go away” | ×31 | ×1 232 | -18.1% | +5.0% | — | 50 |
| Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles | ×15 | ×1 232 | -21.2% | +1.9% | overfit | 1612 |
| Upper Bollinger band breakout | 300.8% | ×1 232 | -26.9% | -3.8% | overfit | 418 |
| Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) | 242.8% | ×1 232 | -27.6% | -4.5% | overfit | 340 |
| Bounce off the lower Bollinger band | 197.6% | ×1 232 | -28.2% | -5.1% | overfit | 204 |
| ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap | 38.8% | ×1 232 | -31.3% | -8.2% | overfit | 186 |
| 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) | -6.0% | ×1 232 | -32.9% | -9.8% | overfit | 594 |
| Smart Money: the liquidity sweep | -11.9% | ×1 232 | -33.1% | -10.0% | overfit | 48 |
| RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70) | -13.8% | ×1 232 | -33.2% | -10.1% | overfit | 50 |
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