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Finaxion Research · The Turtles: 55-day breakout · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on AXON?

The Turtles: 55-day breakout beats buy-and-hold on AXON by +1.0 points a year over 25 years.

Total return
×1 474
Buy and hold
×1 232
CAGR
33.7%
Sharpe
0.85
Max drawdown
-61.1%
Trades
79
Out of sample
partly
Years
25
1×10×100×1000×2493×2002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyAXON

Findings

  1. The Turtles: 55-day breakout beats buy-and-hold on AXON by +1.0 points a year over 25 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +24.1 points a year.
  3. Total return ×1 474 versus ×1 232 for buy-and-hold, with 79 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -61.1%.
  6. It beat before 2014 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #1 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0712690e8935.

Exactly what was tested

Close above the prior 55-day high → entry. Close below the prior 20-day low → exit (original System 2). No pyramiding or ATR sizing: we test the signal alone.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding AXON over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on AXON → · Full page for The Turtles: 55-day breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on AXON?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0712690e8935. https://finaxion.app/en/research/donchian-55-breakout/axon

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.