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Finaxion Research · Bounce off the lower Bollinger band · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on AVB?

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on AVB: -2.3 points a year over 10 years.

Total return
13.5%
Buy and hold
42.3%
CAGR
1.3%
Sharpe
-0.09
Max drawdown
-45.7%
Trades
93
Out of sample
—
Years
10
0.8×1×1.2×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyAVB

Findings

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on AVB: -2.3 points a year over 10 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -13.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +13.5% versus +42.3% for buy-and-hold, with 93 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -45.7%.
  5. It did not beat before 2021 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #215 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding AVB over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on AVB → · Full page for Bounce off the lower Bollinger band →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on AVB?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce/avb

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.