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Finaxion Research · Bounce off the lower Bollinger band · cryptocurrencies · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on BTC/USD?

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on BTC/USD: -54.1 points a year over 12 years.

Total return
-5.1%
Buy and hold
×172
CAGR
-0.3%
Sharpe
0.01
Max drawdown
-76.3%
Trades
124
Out of sample
—
Years
12
1×10×100×201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyBTC/USD

Findings

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on BTC/USD: -54.1 points a year over 12 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -14.1 points a year.
  3. Total return -5.1% versus ×172 for buy-and-hold, with 124 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -76.3%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2020).
  6. It ranks #217 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding BTC/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on BTC/USD → · Full page for Bounce off the lower Bollinger band →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on BTC/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce/btc-usd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.