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Finaxion Research · Bounce off the lower Bollinger band · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on EUR/USD?

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on EUR/USD: -1.2 points a year over 23 years.

Total return
-26.4%
Buy and hold
-3.1%
CAGR
-1.3%
Sharpe
-1.00
Max drawdown
-39.4%
Trades
190
Out of sample
overfit
Years
23
0.7×1×1.3×200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyEUR/USD

Findings

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on EUR/USD: -1.2 points a year over 23 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -12.4 points a year.
  3. Total return -26.4% versus -3.1% for buy-and-hold, with 190 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -39.4%.
  6. It did not beat before 2015 and started afterwards.
  7. It ranks #193 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding EUR/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on EUR/USD → · Full page for Bounce off the lower Bollinger band →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on EUR/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce/eurusd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.