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Finaxion Research · Bounce off the lower Bollinger band · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on IRM?

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on IRM: -10.2 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
502.3%
Buy and hold
×100
CAGR
6.1%
Sharpe
0.20
Max drawdown
-40.7%
Trades
268
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×100×112×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyIRM

Findings

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band does not beat buy-and-hold on IRM: -10.2 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.3 points a year.
  3. Total return +502.3% versus ×100 for buy-and-hold, with 268 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -40.7%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #19 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

Exactly what was tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding IRM over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

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How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Bounce off the lower Bollinger band work on IRM?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce/irm

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.