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Finaxion Research · Upper Bollinger band breakout · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on BG?

Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on BG: -11.1 points a year over 25 years.

Total return
-14.7%
Buy and hold
×12
CAGR
-0.6%
Sharpe
-0.61
Max drawdown
-39.0%
Trades
364
Out of sample
overfit
Years
25
1×6.7×2002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyBG

Findings

  1. Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on BG: -11.1 points a year over 25 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.2 points a year.
  3. Total return -14.7% versus ×12 for buy-and-hold, with 364 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -39.0%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2014).
  7. It ranks #37 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the upper band (20, 2σ); flat when it drops back below.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding BG over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on BG → · Full page for Upper Bollinger band breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on BG?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-breakout/bg

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.