FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Upper Bollinger band breakout · cryptocurrencies · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on LTC/USD?

Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on LTC/USD: -14.3 points a year over 12 years.

Total return
200.4%
Buy and hold
859.3%
CAGR
6.6%
Sharpe
0.22
Max drawdown
-54.5%
Trades
296
Out of sample
—
Years
12
1×10×58×201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyLTC/USD

Findings

  1. Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on LTC/USD: -14.3 points a year over 12 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.2 points a year.
  3. Total return +200.4% versus +859.3% for buy-and-hold, with 296 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -54.5%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2020).
  6. It ranks #7 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the upper band (20, 2σ); flat when it drops back below.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding LTC/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on LTC/USD → · Full page for Upper Bollinger band breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on LTC/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-breakout/ltc-usd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.