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Finaxion Research · Upper Bollinger band breakout · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on TKO?

Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on TKO: -10.4 points a year over 27 years.

Total return
22.9%
Buy and hold
×17
CAGR
0.8%
Sharpe
-0.28
Max drawdown
-48.3%
Trades
448
Out of sample
overfit
Years
27
1×10×20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyTKO

Findings

  1. Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on TKO: -10.4 points a year over 27 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.0 points a year.
  3. Total return +22.9% versus ×17 for buy-and-hold, with 448 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -48.3%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2013).
  7. It ranks #11 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the upper band (20, 2σ); flat when it drops back below.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TKO over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TKO → · Full page for Upper Bollinger band breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on TKO?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-breakout/tko

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.