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Finaxion Research · Upper Bollinger band breakout · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on USD/JPY?

Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on USD/JPY: -0.8 points a year over 30 years.

Total return
9.9%
Buy and hold
40.2%
CAGR
0.3%
Sharpe
-1.83
Max drawdown
-6.1%
Trades
476
Out of sample
overfit
Years
30
0.7×1×1.1×1.4×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyUSD/JPY

Findings

  1. Upper Bollinger band breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on USD/JPY: -0.8 points a year over 30 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +9.9% versus +40.2% for buy-and-hold, with 476 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -6.1%.
  6. It beat before 2011 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #33 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the upper band (20, 2σ); flat when it drops back below.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding USD/JPY over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on USD/JPY → · Full page for Upper Bollinger band breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Upper Bollinger band breakout work on USD/JPY?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-breakout/usdjpy

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.