FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on ARE?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on ARE: -3.3 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
190.5%
Buy and hold
624.3%
CAGR
3.7%
Sharpe
0.09
Max drawdown
-43.0%
Trades
585
Out of sample
overfit
Years
29
1×10×24×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyARE

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on ARE: -3.3 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -5.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +190.5% versus +624.3% for buy-and-hold, with 585 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -43.0%.
  6. It did not beat before 2012 and started afterwards.
  7. It ranks #76 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ARE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ARE → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on ARE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/are

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.