FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Trend following · Updated 2026-09-10

The MACD cross (12/26/9)

Works in few markets

Its ground: crypto, on 4-hour, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 19 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
11 / 489
Vs. index
-8.6 pts/yr
Total return
108.9%
Sharpe
-0.11
Max drawdown
-34.6%
Trades
714
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in The MACD cross (12/26/9)?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not work consistently in any asset class; it does least badly on cryptocurrencies, with 2 of 14 (14%), while on single stocks it beats in 12 of 904. Of the 11 daily markets where it beats, 5 hold out of sample (45%), and no neighbouring parameter beats the index, indicating the published setting is a point, not a region. Performance improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118, and on 4-hour bars, in 6 of 118; its best daily market is BTC/USD at +25.1 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years with 291 trades, and its worst daily market is KHC at -21.2 points a year against the S&P 500.

  1. There is no asset class where the MACD cross (12/26/9) works consistently; it does least badly on cryptocurrencies: 2 of 14 (14%).
  2. It does worst on single stocks: it beats in 12 of 904.
  3. Of the 11 daily markets where it beats, 5 hold out of sample (45%).
  4. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  5. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 6 of 118.
  6. Its best daily market is BTC/USD: +25.1 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years, 291 trades.
  7. Its worst daily market is KHC: -21.2 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

The promise

“When the MACD line crosses above its signal line, momentum turns bullish: buy. When it crosses below, sell.”

Exactly what we tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)+108.9%+3081.0%-2972.2%-8.6 pts714OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-20.5%+1565.8%-1586.3%-9.4 pts560OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+117.5%+801.9%-684.4%-5.7 pts540OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+32.4%+830.9%-798.6%-10.4 pts477OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+188.3%+820.3%-632.0%-6.0 pts435OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-16.3%+131.2%-147.5%-12.0 pts479OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)+486.9%+3081.0%-2594.1%-5.4 pts12168—

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)+14714.1%+3081.0%+11633.1%+5.2 pts26597—

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)+95.0%+3081.0%-2986.1%-8.8 pts36740—

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 6 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 17 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL+8500.3%+322813.1%-314312.7%before 1993871OVERFIT
AMGN+3017.2%+187272.6%-184255.3%before 1993859MARGINAL
AMZN+2257.1%+265196.1%-262939.0%+1.7 pts588OVERFIT
AXP-82.3%+27029.4%-27111.7%before 19931122OVERFIT
BA+2701.2%+108724.7%-106023.5%before 19931280MARGINAL
CAT+2836.6%+172708.3%-169871.7%before 19931254OVERFIT
CRM+387.9%+5992.9%-5605.1%-3.5 pts443OVERFIT
CSCO+234.0%+222956.6%-222722.6%before 1993744OVERFIT
CVX+202.7%+68037.6%-67834.9%before 19931312OVERFIT
DIS+1029.7%+189847.3%-188817.5%before 19931307OVERFIT
GOOGL+511.2%+13534.3%-13023.1%-2.7 pts446OVERFIT
GS-6.6%+2027.1%-2033.7%-8.7 pts563OVERFIT
HD+797.6%+1985758.9%-1984961.3%before 1993930OVERFIT
HON+2.1%+21058.8%-21056.8%before 19931336OVERFIT
IBM+14369.2%+16203.8%-1834.6%before 19931173MARGINAL
JNJ+121.0%+445196.6%-445075.6%before 19931323OVERFIT
JPM+262.7%+34522.5%-34259.8%before 1993938OVERFIT
KO+10.9%+199349.6%-199338.7%before 19931348OVERFIT
MCD+286.5%+236707.0%-236420.4%before 19931256OVERFIT
MMM+154.9%+31160.0%-31005.0%before 19931302OVERFIT
MRK+188.2%+233375.1%-233186.9%before 19931319OVERFIT
MSFT+3034.9%+859506.0%-856471.1%before 1993794OVERFIT
NKE+954.9%+32003.7%-31048.8%before 1993872OVERFIT
NVDA+3527.5%+587720.8%-584193.3%+5.2 pts546MARGINAL
PG+29.0%+59706.6%-59677.6%before 19931368OVERFIT
SHW+179.9%+231766.6%-231586.6%before 1993980OVERFIT
TRV+662.0%+12287.7%-11625.7%before 1993978OVERFIT
UNH+2700.6%+353381.4%-350680.8%before 1993847OVERFIT
V-18.7%+2961.1%-2979.8%-13.2 pts395INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+699.6%+915365.3%-914665.7%before 19931088OVERFIT
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+38.2%+147731.1%-147692.9%before 1993817OVERFIT
ADI+80.7%+81534.0%-81453.3%before 1993946OVERFIT
ADP+22.9%+74205.9%-74183.0%before 1993981OVERFIT
ADSK+306.3%+58084.6%-57778.2%before 1993853OVERFIT
AEP+821.6%+13797.6%-12976.0%before 19931286OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+3312.6%+3338.4%-25.8%+6.2 pts405OVERFIT
AMAT+493.1%+664974.8%-664481.7%before 1993944OVERFIT
AMD+7552.5%+14863.3%-7310.8%before 1993894MARGINAL
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+933.6%+96277.5%-95343.9%-3.3 pts644MARGINAL
AVGO+548.0%+32512.1%-31964.0%-3.1 pts350INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+28656.4%+123065.2%-94408.8%+15.7 pts430OVERFIT
BKNG-2.0%+922.2%-924.2%-8.7 pts548OVERFIT
BKR-41.0%+933.9%-974.8%before 1993820OVERFIT
CCEP+874.9%+7081.8%-6206.9%before 1993772OVERFIT
CDNS+79.5%+16839.0%-16759.5%before 1993787MARGINAL
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+21.2%+47049.9%-47028.6%before 1993957OVERFIT
COST+92.5%+12800.7%-12708.2%before 1993838OVERFIT
CPRT+1455.5%+21554.9%-20099.5%-2.1 pts635MARGINAL
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+88.8%+40426.1%-40337.3%before 1993959OVERFIT
CTAS+1383.3%+123411.3%-122028.0%before 1993848OVERFIT
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+1266.5%+3002.6%-1736.1%+1.8 pts418OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+150.6%+17730.6%-17580.0%before 19931082OVERFIT
FANG+116.6%+1406.8%-1290.2%-9.1 pts292INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+3040.2%+262350.7%-259310.4%before 1993776OVERFIT
FER-18.6%+593.7%-612.3%-16.3 pts246INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+104.8%+10184.6%-10079.8%-9.8 pts353INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD-49.2%+33594.8%-33644.0%before 1993751OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+504.1%+58789.5%-58285.4%before 1993704OVERFIT
INTC+212.8%+49216.9%-49004.0%before 1993928OVERFIT
INTU+229.3%+15430.2%-15200.8%-7.2 pts700OVERFIT
ISRG+439.7%+18484.9%-18045.2%-1.8 pts538OVERFIT
KDP+59.9%+1090.2%-1030.3%-9.2 pts397INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-55.0%-42.2%-12.8%-21.2 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC-26.5%+289399.1%-289425.6%before 1993952OVERFIT
LIN-42.6%+10777.0%-10819.6%before 1993713OVERFIT
LITE+81.1%+5280.9%-5199.8%-8.7 pts209INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX-12.8%+159814.6%-159827.3%before 1993888OVERFIT
MAR+371.3%+2539.5%-2168.2%-3.3 pts567MARGINAL
MCHP-33.4%+41961.5%-41995.0%-12.0 pts700OVERFIT
MDLZ+58.3%+461.4%-403.1%-7.6 pts528OVERFIT
MELI+425.8%+6911.0%-6485.2%-2.0 pts381INCONCLUSIVE
META+39.1%+1410.2%-1371.1%-12.9 pts295INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+9000.5%+61968.9%-52968.4%before 1993859MARGINAL
MPWR+1129.4%+15002.1%-13872.8%+1.2 pts428OVERFIT
MRVL-38.3%+1645.0%-1683.3%-10.3 pts529OVERFIT
MSTR+43486.3%+1158.6%+42327.7%+15.1 pts509MARGINAL
MU+1987.8%+70877.8%-68890.0%before 1993849MARGINAL
NFLX+500.0%+67643.2%-67143.2%-2.6 pts481OVERFIT
NXPI+139.3%+1721.2%-1581.8%-9.1 pts323INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-17.6%+36444.7%-36462.3%before 1993792OVERFIT
ORLY+516.2%+55255.7%-54739.5%-5.3 pts706MARGINAL
PANW+379.8%+4215.4%-3835.6%-3.2 pts266INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+2394.3%+57106.4%-54712.1%before 1993904MARGINAL
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP-48.2%+37760.7%-37808.9%before 19931159OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-38.5%+44.7%-83.2%-18.6 pts228INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+344.8%+50430.1%-50085.3%before 1993703OVERFIT
REGN+1541.8%+3718.3%-2176.5%before 1993704OVERFIT
ROP+59.2%+26003.6%-25944.4%before 1993741OVERFIT
ROST+428.7%+55801.1%-55372.4%before 1993866MARGINAL
SBUX-67.9%+43019.5%-43087.5%before 1993753OVERFIT
SHOP+103.1%+8568.8%-8465.7%-7.4 pts238INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-41.8%+5482.1%-5523.9%before 1993699OVERFIT
STX+8557.5%+15614.6%-7057.1%+9.3 pts436MARGINAL
TER-39.8%+31309.8%-31349.6%before 19931090OVERFIT
TMUS-76.2%+318.0%-394.2%-18.1 pts407INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+29.2%+578.4%-549.2%-9.6 pts500OVERFIT
TSLA+12238.1%+23002.8%-10764.6%+19.6 pts317INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+207.7%+5509.7%-5302.0%-6.2 pts586OVERFIT
TXN+112.3%+38040.6%-37928.3%before 19931094OVERFIT
VRTX+608.1%+12000.4%-11392.3%before 1993703MARGINAL
WBD+47.2%+302.2%-254.9%-9.3 pts409OVERFIT
WDAY-6.6%+305.5%-312.1%-15.3 pts294INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+12850.9%+66202.2%-53351.3%before 1993941GENERALIZED
XEL+477.8%+7388.9%-6911.1%before 19931086OVERFIT
A+7.8%+486.3%-478.5%-8.1 pts525OVERFIT
ABBV+87.6%+1156.0%-1068.4%-10.1 pts273INCONCLUSIVE
ABT-75.5%+62056.2%-62131.7%before 19931028OVERFIT
ACGL+7.7%+4268.0%-4260.3%-10.3 pts665OVERFIT
ACN+106.0%+1726.5%-1620.5%-6.6 pts509OVERFIT
ADM-63.7%+9265.6%-9329.3%before 1993972OVERFIT
AEE+175.9%+813.9%-638.1%-5.7 pts562OVERFIT
AES+175.5%+647.5%-472.0%before 1993748OVERFIT
AFL+768.9%+205848.4%-205079.5%before 1993982OVERFIT
AIG-18.8%+468.3%-487.0%before 19931096OVERFIT
AIZ+150.7%+1585.5%-1434.8%-6.7 pts476OVERFIT
AJG+2734.4%+41899.5%-39165.1%before 1993841OVERFIT
AKAM-49.4%-25.2%-24.2%-11.0 pts508OVERFIT
ALB+153.8%+3091.3%-2937.5%-8.0 pts651OVERFIT
ALGN+171.9%+846.9%-675.0%-4.9 pts486MARGINAL
ALL-28.3%+3674.2%-3702.5%-11.8 pts728OVERFIT
ALLE+68.8%+265.9%-197.2%-9.8 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-10.7%+100.6%-111.3%-15.8 pts266INCONCLUSIVE
AME+193.8%+25325.0%-25131.2%before 1993866OVERFIT
AMP+229.2%+2154.1%-1924.9%-5.3 pts426OVERFIT
AMT+13.9%+1310.2%-1296.2%-8.6 pts571OVERFIT
ANET+77.1%+5592.8%-5515.7%-8.9 pts254INCONCLUSIVE
AON-2.1%+29815.0%-29817.1%before 1993958OVERFIT
AOS+1042.5%+13924.9%-12882.4%before 1993858MARGINAL
APA-8.0%+2417.2%-2425.2%before 1993948OVERFIT
APD+37.1%+20722.2%-20685.0%before 1993970OVERFIT
APH+2817.4%+146951.6%-144134.2%before 1993674MARGINAL
APO+484.9%+1845.9%-1360.9%-1.8 pts296INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+52.9%+174.0%-121.1%-12.3 pts310INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+190.5%+624.3%-433.8%-5.9 pts585OVERFIT
ARES+196.4%+1191.9%-995.4%-4.7 pts236INCONCLUSIVE
ATO+75.5%+13696.4%-13620.9%before 1993930OVERFIT
AVB-21.1%+42.3%-63.4%-17.5 pts216INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+207.8%+8544.4%-8336.6%before 19931076OVERFIT
AWK+34.0%+950.9%-916.9%-10.2 pts400INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+417.5%+40631.8%-40214.3%before 1993730OVERFIT
BAC+696.9%+4053.1%-3356.2%before 19931014OVERFIT
BALL+1287.7%+49568.6%-48280.9%before 19931081OVERFIT
BAX-94.4%+1778.4%-1872.8%before 1993940OVERFIT
BBY+1028.6%+89506.6%-88478.1%before 1993822OVERFIT
BDX+199.2%+21440.4%-21241.2%before 19931060OVERFIT
BEN+2921.1%+130378.8%-127457.7%before 1993848MARGINAL
BF-B+1056.9%+14873.5%-13816.6%before 1993906OVERFIT
BG+91.9%+1105.5%-1013.6%-6.9 pts497OVERFIT
BIIB+62.9%+6832.8%-6769.9%before 1993709OVERFIT
BLDR+85.6%+393.7%-308.1%-8.2 pts430OVERFIT
BLK+221.8%+13724.5%-13502.7%-4.3 pts560OVERFIT
BMY-61.1%+23662.6%-23723.7%before 19931153OVERFIT
BNY+338.2%+32230.3%-31892.1%before 19931044OVERFIT
BR+252.7%+1234.2%-981.6%-4.3 pts375INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+84.7%+2072.5%-1987.8%-8.3 pts626OVERFIT
BRO+1214.5%+76212.8%-74998.2%before 1993940OVERFIT
BSX-70.4%+1028.2%-1098.6%before 1993712OVERFIT
BX+343.7%+1023.3%-679.6%-2.8 pts348INCONCLUSIVE
BXP-15.4%+888.9%-904.3%-10.1 pts629OVERFIT
C-40.3%+1897.9%-1938.2%before 1993980OVERFIT
CAH+1356.5%+39284.8%-37928.2%before 1993846OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+376.0%+80461.2%-80085.2%before 1993858OVERFIT
CB+172.9%+6587.6%-6414.7%-7.8 pts712OVERFIT
CBOE+126.0%+1060.1%-934.0%-9.4 pts363INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE-9.4%+2283.8%-2293.2%-11.4 pts448OVERFIT
CCI+122.5%+899.9%-777.4%-6.1 pts563OVERFIT
CCL+1455.5%+1154.4%+301.1%before 1993750OVERFIT
CDW+101.3%+858.2%-756.9%-9.0 pts251INCONCLUSIVE
CF+356.1%+5815.9%-5459.8%-3.6 pts447OVERFIT
CFG+54.0%+349.9%-295.9%-10.1 pts248INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+665.7%+93736.5%-93070.8%before 1993951OVERFIT
CHRW+42.5%+4307.6%-4265.2%-8.1 pts601OVERFIT
CHTR-19.1%+335.5%-354.7%-15.4 pts326INCONCLUSIVE
CI+57.6%+12980.8%-12923.2%before 1993891OVERFIT
CIEN-5.3%+195.6%-200.9%-10.0 pts589OVERFIT
CINF+4114.4%+41545.9%-37431.5%before 1993885OVERFIT
CL-81.4%+20919.0%-21000.4%before 19931160OVERFIT
CLX+170.3%+6184.2%-6013.9%before 19931068OVERFIT
CME+426.7%+6884.2%-6457.5%-4.1 pts475OVERFIT
CMG+111.8%+4221.6%-4109.8%-7.4 pts419OVERFIT
CMI+6405.2%+28968.2%-22563.1%before 19931040MARGINAL
CMS+77.0%+630.8%-553.8%before 19931058OVERFIT
CNC+49.5%+4388.8%-4339.3%-8.4 pts506OVERFIT
CNP+922.9%+13998.0%-13075.1%before 19931298OVERFIT
COF+31.3%+5724.6%-5693.3%-10.3 pts656OVERFIT
COHR+853.0%+68288.9%-67435.9%before 1993778MARGINAL
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+454.6%+879.8%-425.2%before 1993884OVERFIT
COP+73.5%+13561.7%-13488.2%before 1993929OVERFIT
COR+853.5%+17062.1%-16208.5%-3.5 pts641OVERFIT
CPAY+210.4%+1383.7%-1173.2%-6.8 pts286INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+140.5%+2453.9%-2313.4%-8.2 pts674OVERFIT
CRH-46.5%+7617.9%-7664.4%before 1993755OVERFIT
CRL-10.8%+1210.2%-1221.0%-8.9 pts510OVERFIT
CSGP+887.9%+3390.6%-2502.7%-0.4 pts565OVERFIT
CTSH+897.4%+35498.3%-34600.8%-0.5 pts551MARGINAL
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS-35.7%+15658.6%-15694.3%before 19931094OVERFIT
D+245.0%+17762.4%-17517.4%before 1993958OVERFIT
DAL+215.1%+339.1%-124.0%-4.7 pts370INCONCLUSIVE
DD+150.3%+10113.6%-9963.3%before 19931092OVERFIT
DE-38.7%+101089.1%-101127.8%before 19931161OVERFIT
DECK-92.0%+7024.7%-7116.7%-18.2 pts730OVERFIT
DELL+336.5%+4059.8%-3723.2%+0.7 pts196INCONCLUSIVE
DG+28.7%+550.3%-521.6%-12.8 pts328INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+307.8%+9626.0%-9318.2%-5.3 pts550OVERFIT
DHI+20.5%+13111.0%-13090.5%before 1993723OVERFIT
DHR+467.1%+483557.2%-483090.2%before 1993987OVERFIT
DLR-13.6%+3540.7%-3554.3%-11.8 pts468OVERFIT
DLTR+19.1%+10731.5%-10712.4%-10.5 pts658OVERFIT
DOC+151.4%+6136.8%-5985.5%before 1993831OVERFIT
DOV+1180.9%+29264.8%-28083.9%before 1993910OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+378.8%+5638.6%-5259.8%-3.8 pts442OVERFIT
DRI+29.2%+6998.7%-6969.5%-10.0 pts674OVERFIT
DTE+348.0%+35264.3%-34916.3%before 19931350OVERFIT
DUK+391.0%+16239.0%-15848.0%before 1993960OVERFIT
DVA+99.9%+4219.3%-4119.3%-8.3 pts599OVERFIT
DVN+151.9%+1411.9%-1260.0%before 1993797MARGINAL
EBAY+863.9%+14035.1%-13171.2%-0.8 pts537MARGINAL
ECHO-28.3%+227.3%-255.6%-13.1 pts369INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+86.6%+20174.1%-20087.5%before 19931115OVERFIT
ED+6831.4%+45081.6%-38250.2%before 19931207OVERFIT
EFX+404.3%+77234.4%-76830.1%before 1993957OVERFIT
EG-4.7%+2975.7%-2980.5%-10.8 pts657OVERFIT
EIX+4695.3%+14610.5%-9915.3%before 19931031OVERFIT
EL-19.4%+1551.3%-1570.8%-11.2 pts625OVERFIT
ELV+62.2%+2326.9%-2264.6%-8.3 pts519OVERFIT
EME+1715.5%+59203.5%-57488.0%-1.6 pts628OVERFIT
EMR-45.9%+19839.1%-19885.0%before 19931114OVERFIT
EOG+114.5%+9279.7%-9165.2%before 1993754OVERFIT
EQIX+110.0%+240.5%-130.5%-5.5 pts509MARGINAL
EQR+38.1%+44.2%-6.1%-11.9 pts186INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+175.4%+19557.1%-19381.7%before 1993961OVERFIT
ERIE+238.3%+3362.8%-3124.6%-6.6 pts634OVERFIT
ES+420.8%+2960.1%-2539.3%before 19931090OVERFIT
ESS+98.3%+5274.8%-5176.5%-8.9 pts666OVERFIT
ETN+8395.1%+116541.5%-108146.3%before 19931040MARGINAL
ETR+311.9%+19797.9%-19486.0%before 19931135OVERFIT
EVRG-30.9%+5086.7%-5117.6%before 19931128OVERFIT
EW+150.6%+6500.0%-6349.4%-4.7 pts526OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+5349.4%+148324.6%-142975.2%before 1993867OVERFIT
EXPE+211.4%+916.1%-704.7%-5.5 pts404OVERFIT
EXR+132.2%+2698.9%-2566.8%-7.4 pts462OVERFIT
F+322.7%+6752.4%-6429.7%before 19931096OVERFIT
FCX+602.5%+1061.6%-459.1%-4.2 pts617OVERFIT
FDS+416.1%+9088.9%-8672.8%-4.7 pts581OVERFIT
FDX+235.4%+53776.9%-53541.5%before 1993991OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+120.9%+563.0%-442.2%-6.7 pts584OVERFIT
FFIV+423.2%+5374.0%-4950.8%-2.2 pts559OVERFIT
FICO+279.7%+94747.8%-94468.1%before 1993845OVERFIT
FIS-51.9%+363.8%-415.7%-12.4 pts510OVERFIT
FITB+1395.6%+28280.0%-26884.5%before 1993894OVERFIT
FIX+1543.3%+11966.2%-10422.9%+0.6 pts550OVERFIT
FLEX+102.5%+7898.6%-7796.1%-8.7 pts652OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+162.5%+24360.2%-24197.8%before 19931088OVERFIT
FSLR-68.5%+716.1%-784.6%-16.7 pts404OVERFIT
FTV-26.5%+100.1%-126.7%-18.5 pts212INCONCLUSIVE
GD+1080.4%+221689.9%-220609.5%before 19931306MARGINAL
GDDY+1.0%+389.4%-388.4%-13.9 pts237INCONCLUSIVE
GE+295.0%+54356.2%-54061.2%before 19931298OVERFIT
GEN+95.1%+12085.6%-11990.5%before 1993735OVERFIT
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS-54.9%+15015.5%-15070.4%before 19931001OVERFIT
GL+773.4%+12680.6%-11907.2%before 1993942OVERFIT
GLW+1183.9%+19301.2%-18117.3%before 1993841OVERFIT
GM+70.0%+240.1%-170.1%-11.1 pts310INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+278.5%+2091.1%-1812.6%-6.2 pts338INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+191.6%+12785.5%-12594.0%before 1993952OVERFIT
GPN-47.5%+2567.9%-2615.4%-11.5 pts522OVERFIT
GRMN-18.9%+5377.3%-5396.3%-9.8 pts518OVERFIT
GWW+627.0%+55300.2%-54673.2%before 19931067OVERFIT
HAL-18.6%+2860.8%-2879.4%before 19931075OVERFIT
HAS+1293.3%+201529.8%-200236.5%before 1993920OVERFIT
HBAN+128.5%+3799.5%-3671.0%before 1993950OVERFIT
HCA+224.9%+1699.7%-1474.8%-6.2 pts299INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+124.7%+951.1%-826.4%-7.7 pts624OVERFIT
HII+182.9%+883.6%-700.8%-7.2 pts302INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+93.2%+659.1%-566.0%-8.8 pts263INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+277.7%+625.0%-347.3%-1.8 pts208INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ-2.5%+77945.5%-77948.0%before 19931280OVERFIT
HRL+359.1%+19046.1%-18687.0%before 1993942OVERFIT
HSIC-2.8%+1913.1%-1915.9%-10.7 pts634OVERFIT
HST+2031.6%+12843.9%-10812.3%before 1993936MARGINAL
HSY+57.0%+53964.6%-53907.5%before 1993976OVERFIT
HUBB+157.1%+3853.5%-3696.4%-8.0 pts668OVERFIT
HUM+173.5%+20168.9%-19995.4%before 1993939OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR-54.6%+1526.1%-1580.8%-14.8 pts417INCONCLUSIVE
ICE+128.9%+2307.9%-2179.0%-7.1 pts431OVERFIT
IEX+549.0%+12761.2%-12212.3%before 1993760OVERFIT
IFF+54.7%+4754.9%-4700.2%before 19931039OVERFIT
INCY+3027.9%+6471.7%-3443.8%+0.2 pts581MARGINAL
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP+139.0%+4590.1%-4451.1%before 19931288OVERFIT
IQV+74.1%+520.3%-446.1%-10.0 pts253INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+156.6%+9911.6%-9755.0%-7.2 pts626OVERFIT
IT+363.5%+6431.0%-6067.5%-6.1 pts646OVERFIT
ITW+2031.9%+51254.1%-49222.2%before 19931050OVERFIT
IVZ+41.5%+1093.8%-1052.4%-9.6 pts617OVERFIT
J+256.8%+33544.7%-33287.9%before 1993919OVERFIT
JBHT+1002.6%+24926.6%-23924.0%before 1993844OVERFIT
JBL+902.6%+41217.7%-40315.1%-3.7 pts684MARGINAL
JCI+822.7%+4376.5%-3553.8%before 1993770OVERFIT
JKHY+412.1%+71288.2%-70876.1%before 1993853OVERFIT
KEY-84.8%+1405.6%-1490.4%before 1993810OVERFIT
KEYS+117.9%+1042.3%-924.4%-7.5 pts234INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+174.5%+3036.5%-2862.0%before 1993678OVERFIT
KKR+26.8%+1784.9%-1758.0%-13.3 pts320INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+123.0%+16039.9%-15916.9%before 1993917OVERFIT
KMI+0.1%+117.5%-117.3%-13.9 pts300INCONCLUSIVE
KR+83.9%+182706.1%-182622.1%before 19931357OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+83.0%+22398.8%-22315.8%before 1993934OVERFIT
LDOS+73.6%+530.2%-456.6%-8.3 pts374OVERFIT
LEN+54.9%+29032.9%-28978.0%before 1993945OVERFIT
LH+175.6%+1408.2%-1232.6%before 1993766OVERFIT
LHX+379.8%+8519.5%-8139.8%before 1993904OVERFIT
LII+54.6%+3122.4%-3067.8%-6.9 pts549OVERFIT
LLY+1264.7%+129720.0%-128455.3%before 19931064OVERFIT
LMT+158.9%+67444.7%-67285.8%before 19931310OVERFIT
LNT-21.3%+9408.5%-9429.8%before 19931144OVERFIT
LOW+1117.8%+77328.4%-76210.6%before 1993902OVERFIT
LULU+187.1%+759.0%-571.9%-5.4 pts360INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+306.5%+24508.5%-24202.0%before 1993960OVERFIT
LVS+175.8%+50.3%+125.5%-6.1 pts416OVERFIT
LYB+56.6%+648.8%-592.2%-11.3 pts312INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+210.1%+1558.0%-1347.8%-5.5 pts382OVERFIT
MA+50.2%+14066.9%-14016.7%-9.2 pts447OVERFIT
MAA-39.2%+3525.2%-3564.4%-12.3 pts706OVERFIT
MAS+1160.7%+7423.1%-6262.4%before 1993930OVERFIT
MCK+92.0%+6946.5%-6854.5%-9.1 pts633OVERFIT
MCO-44.8%+7753.9%-7798.7%-12.9 pts687OVERFIT
MDT+83.0%+51421.0%-51338.0%before 19931086OVERFIT
MET-55.5%+1176.9%-1232.5%-11.3 pts552OVERFIT
MGM+1432.5%+1501.4%-68.9%before 1993718MARGINAL
MKC+101.1%+14401.8%-14300.7%before 19931046OVERFIT
MLM+98.2%+3089.6%-2991.3%-8.8 pts665OVERFIT
MO+1647.5%+2914781.4%-2913133.9%before 19931297OVERFIT
MOS+30.6%+268.9%-238.4%before 1993753OVERFIT
MPC+1748.6%+2972.8%-1224.2%+6.7 pts297INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+420.1%+21192.9%-20772.7%before 19931118OVERFIT
MS-1.6%+6159.1%-6160.7%-10.9 pts692OVERFIT
MSCI-12.8%+2406.7%-2419.5%-12.0 pts425INCONCLUSIVE
MSI-6.1%+79243.2%-79249.2%before 19931319OVERFIT
MTB+2998.8%+105049.8%-102051.0%before 1993920OVERFIT
MTD+138.1%+9346.3%-9208.2%-6.4 pts564OVERFIT
NCLH+74.6%-34.9%+109.5%-10.6 pts252INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+272.8%+2371.2%-2098.4%-5.3 pts455OVERFIT
NDSN+6564.9%+37769.3%-31204.4%before 1993933OVERFIT
NEE+1425.0%+23772.9%-22347.8%before 19931080OVERFIT
NEM+342.4%+2099.8%-1757.4%before 1993931OVERFIT
NI-16.9%+5234.9%-5251.8%before 19931090OVERFIT
NOC+997.6%+23369.3%-22371.7%before 1993885MARGINAL
NOW+128.2%+2907.9%-2779.7%-8.9 pts287INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+190.7%+1442.6%-1251.8%-6.2 pts434OVERFIT
NSC+80.4%+24520.7%-24440.3%before 1993933OVERFIT
NTAP+781.9%+19659.8%-18877.9%-3.2 pts600OVERFIT
NTRS+767.5%+53074.8%-52307.4%before 1993902OVERFIT
NUE+812.1%+70209.1%-69396.9%before 1993930OVERFIT
NVR+43.0%+61512.0%-61469.0%-9.8 pts731OVERFIT
NWS+92.8%+152.4%-59.6%-9.3 pts247INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+41.9%+122.2%-80.3%-11.7 pts255INCONCLUSIVE
O+300.2%+5366.4%-5066.2%-6.6 pts654MARGINAL
OKE+2288.5%+19101.6%-16813.1%before 1993891OVERFIT
OMC-5.3%+15677.5%-15682.8%before 1993966OVERFIT
ON-3.5%+208.7%-212.2%-8.6 pts543OVERFIT
ORCL+333.6%+296729.4%-296395.8%before 1993813MARGINAL
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+173.2%+3580.0%-3406.8%before 1993878OVERFIT
PCG-29.0%+1389.7%-1418.7%before 19931136OVERFIT
PEG+336.0%+18884.4%-18548.4%before 1993988OVERFIT
PFE-28.3%+20062.7%-20091.0%before 19931119OVERFIT
PFG+129.7%+920.1%-790.4%-6.7 pts494OVERFIT
PGR+12843.8%+819581.9%-806738.2%before 1993879MARGINAL
PH+8986.3%+41129.4%-32143.1%before 1993896GENERALIZED
PHM+49.2%+95847.7%-95798.5%before 1993956OVERFIT
PLD-14.6%+1782.5%-1797.1%-9.9 pts619OVERFIT
PM+101.1%+785.7%-684.6%-8.3 pts381INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+728.2%+37937.9%-37209.7%before 1993990OVERFIT
PNR+1254.6%+11510.8%-10256.3%before 19931046OVERFIT
PNW+447.9%+2247.6%-1799.7%before 19931052OVERFIT
PODD+422.8%+831.5%-408.7%-1.8 pts360INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+350.4%+21327.4%-20977.0%before 1993926OVERFIT
PPL+642.0%+7311.8%-6669.9%before 1993874OVERFIT
PRU+46.9%+767.8%-720.8%-8.5 pts540OVERFIT
PSA+20.9%+13958.7%-13937.8%before 1993950OVERFIT
PSKY+33.1%-34.8%+67.9%-9.7 pts409OVERFIT
PSX+693.4%+1071.7%-378.2%+0.9 pts277INCONCLUSIVE
PTC+451.8%+8443.5%-7991.6%before 1993698MARGINAL
PWR+278.4%+8155.1%-7876.6%-4.4 pts606OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+3557.1%+4611.6%-1054.5%+0.5 pts664OVERFIT
REG+62.7%+2046.5%-1983.8%-9.3 pts700OVERFIT
RF+74.1%+7230.0%-7155.9%before 1993914OVERFIT
RJF+146.6%+52691.1%-52544.4%before 1993884MARGINAL
RL-46.4%+1376.9%-1423.3%-11.6 pts586OVERFIT
RMD+2166.2%+43254.4%-41088.2%-0.3 pts585MARGINAL
ROK+798.1%+57325.7%-56527.6%before 1993932OVERFIT
ROL-24.3%+36503.9%-36528.2%before 19931001OVERFIT
RSG+249.1%+1977.7%-1728.6%-4.3 pts575OVERFIT
RTX+438.6%+231131.9%-230693.3%before 19931358OVERFIT
RVTY+7.1%+25547.2%-25540.1%before 19931079OVERFIT
SBAC+7066.5%+2259.6%+4806.9%+8.5 pts551OVERFIT
SCHW+427.7%+45501.9%-45074.2%before 1993800OVERFIT
SJM-54.5%+1119.0%-1173.4%-13.5 pts659OVERFIT
SLB-63.5%+1125.4%-1189.0%before 1993877OVERFIT
SMCI+271.6%+4155.7%-3884.1%-4.1 pts371INCONCLUSIVE
SNA-42.2%+12522.0%-12564.2%before 19931110OVERFIT
SO+379.8%+32617.4%-32237.5%before 1993930OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+282.2%+5330.6%-5048.4%-6.7 pts634OVERFIT
SPGI+854.7%+140503.3%-139648.6%before 19931079OVERFIT
SRE+2.6%+1463.0%-1460.3%-8.8 pts637OVERFIT
STE+33.0%+15491.4%-15458.4%before 1993682OVERFIT
STLD+278.9%+7831.8%-7552.9%-5.4 pts612OVERFIT
STT+1386.1%+199686.1%-198300.1%before 1993911OVERFIT
STZ-9.1%+10007.0%-10016.1%before 1993683OVERFIT
SW+131.3%+775.0%-643.7%-7.3 pts302INCONCLUSIVE
SWK-79.7%+5887.9%-5967.6%before 19931012OVERFIT
SWKS-93.5%+1317.3%-1410.8%before 1993908OVERFIT
SYF+94.9%+325.2%-230.4%-8.3 pts252INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+728.1%+430371.4%-429643.4%before 1993936OVERFIT
SYY+486.6%+115885.9%-115399.3%before 19931066OVERFIT
T+0.6%+10219.8%-10219.1%before 1993905OVERFIT
TAP-99.0%+518.8%-617.8%before 19931122OVERFIT
TDG+65.0%+13285.3%-13220.3%-8.6 pts440OVERFIT
TDY+177.7%+7164.6%-6986.9%-4.5 pts556OVERFIT
TECH+110.3%+79246.8%-79136.5%before 1993772OVERFIT
TEL+138.4%+671.1%-532.7%-6.2 pts386INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+1938.3%+10226.4%-8288.2%before 1993904MARGINAL
TGT+1231.2%+90566.5%-89335.2%before 19931061OVERFIT
TJX-15.1%+36154.4%-36169.6%before 1993866OVERFIT
TKO+383.1%+1638.9%-1255.7%-2.8 pts516OVERFIT
TMO+148.5%+36784.3%-36635.8%before 1993937OVERFIT
TPL+10783.5%+75277.1%-64493.7%before 1993863MARGINAL
TPR-29.1%+7766.6%-7795.7%-10.0 pts510OVERFIT
TRGP+397.1%+2202.9%-1805.8%-3.6 pts337INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+112.4%+3366.4%-3254.0%before 1993735OVERFIT
TROW+207.2%+35932.6%-35725.4%before 1993805OVERFIT
TSCO+650.5%+15199.0%-14548.6%-4.5 pts666OVERFIT
TSN+480.0%+4340.8%-3860.8%before 1993904OVERFIT
TT+9153.5%+49748.2%-40594.7%before 1993888MARGINAL
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+163.6%+4901.2%-4737.6%before 19931058OVERFIT
TYL-11.8%+43359.1%-43370.8%before 19931031OVERFIT
UAL+66.5%+240.6%-174.1%-8.7 pts390MARGINAL
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+49.3%+14119.5%-14070.2%before 1993979OVERFIT
UHS+4709.4%+15293.2%-10583.8%before 1993852OVERFIT
ULTA+7.1%+1721.3%-1714.2%-10.6 pts383INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+133.0%+30311.4%-30178.4%before 1993951OVERFIT
UPS+0.7%+233.2%-232.5%-8.5 pts529OVERFIT
URI+6469.2%+7088.3%-619.1%+6.3 pts518GENERALIZED
USB+7666.6%+44799.0%-37132.4%before 19931052OVERFIT
VEEV+63.2%+668.8%-605.6%-10.3 pts269INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+14031.5%+23394.0%-9362.5%before 1993864OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+4268.1%+48759.3%-44491.2%before 19931040OVERFIT
VRSK+24.4%+648.8%-624.4%-13.1 pts361INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+274.1%+5322.0%-5047.9%-4.6 pts565OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+133.0%+1496.8%-1363.9%-6.8 pts561OVERFIT
VTRS+54.5%+1568.8%-1514.2%before 1993919OVERFIT
VZ-15.7%+4889.1%-4904.8%before 1993911OVERFIT
WAB+116.7%+4137.7%-4021.0%-8.3 pts628OVERFIT
WAT+230.1%+10865.4%-10635.3%-6.6 pts622MARGINAL
WEC+605.8%+23656.8%-23051.0%before 1993952OVERFIT
WELL+461.5%+58774.1%-58312.7%before 1993975OVERFIT
WFC+237.8%+63452.2%-63214.4%before 19931108OVERFIT
WM+1461.9%+8471.2%-7009.4%before 1993758OVERFIT
WMB-95.1%+11974.1%-12069.2%before 1993953OVERFIT
WSM-11.2%+69865.8%-69877.0%before 1993916OVERFIT
WST+1543.1%+79208.6%-77665.5%before 1993894OVERFIT
WTW+3.7%+1181.6%-1177.9%-9.2 pts514OVERFIT
WY-72.7%+1781.4%-1854.1%before 19931120OVERFIT
WYNN+253.4%+1217.6%-964.1%-5.9 pts482OVERFIT
XOM-69.2%+183657.9%-183727.1%before 19931452OVERFIT
XYL+36.3%+455.0%-418.8%-13.1 pts310INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+192.4%+527.5%-335.2%-4.2 pts195INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-6.2%+4282.5%-4288.7%-9.6 pts595OVERFIT
ZBH-55.3%+292.2%-347.4%-12.8 pts512OVERFIT
ZBRA+299.0%+8617.7%-8318.6%before 1993678MARGINAL
ZTS-9.6%+179.3%-188.9%-15.4 pts273INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 2 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD-25.4%-3.1%-22.3%-12.3 pts517OVERFIT
GBP/USD-15.4%-21.2%+5.8%-11.8 pts465OVERFIT
USD/JPY-7.2%+40.2%-47.5%-10.5 pts645OVERFIT
USD/MXN+13.9%+49.9%-36.0%-10.5 pts484OVERFIT
AUD/USD-9.0%-6.6%-2.4%-11.7 pts417OVERFIT
USD/CAD-1.7%+1.7%-3.4%-11.2 pts500OVERFIT
USD/CHF-32.1%-41.4%+9.3%-12.8 pts468OVERFIT
NZD/USD-11.4%-8.1%-3.3%-11.6 pts471OVERFIT

Crypto · 2 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 2 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin+29495.2%+17075.3%+12419.9%+25.1 pts291INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+1291.4%+859.3%+432.1%+2.6 pts316INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.1%-1298.5%+432.1%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-87.7%-83.8%-66.1%-25.3%-22.3%
GBP/USD-87.5%-84.5%-51.6%+10.6%+5.8%
USD/JPY-136.0%-129.1%-87.9%+5.7%-47.5%
AUD/USD————-2.4%
USD/CAD-136.7%-133.2%-87.4%-37.7%-3.4%
USD/CHF-85.1%-83.5%-45.1%-1.4%+9.3%
NZD/USD-82.5%-81.0%-52.2%-16.3%-3.3%
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-453.3%-412.8%-278.9%-2972.2%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-704.4%-630.9%-531.8%-1586.3%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-307.1%-280.7%-185.8%-684.4%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-268.4%-239.2%-188.4%-798.6%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-396.5%-351.4%-234.6%-632.0%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-91.5%-73.4%-35.4%-147.5%
AAPL-1349.6%-1348.8%-1209.6%-1105.1%-314312.7%
AMGN-379.1%-378.9%-346.3%-205.5%-184255.3%
AMZN-836.5%-835.5%-618.3%-630.1%-262939.0%
AXP-573.8%-572.6%-455.6%-249.8%-27111.7%
BA-166.5%-165.6%-110.5%+39.9%-106023.5%
CAT-1513.0%-1512.0%-1350.3%-1171.9%-169871.7%
CRM-339.5%-339.2%-309.3%-193.5%-5605.1%
CSCO-570.4%-570.2%-513.5%-486.9%-222722.6%
CVX-358.2%-358.0%-315.9%-227.7%-67834.9%
DIS-114.8%-114.2%-99.8%-34.7%-188817.5%
GOOGL-920.8%-920.4%-835.6%-755.3%-13023.1%
GS-723.2%-722.6%-628.4%-118.5%-2033.7%
HD-324.2%-323.6%-296.6%-183.3%-1984961.3%
HON-280.6%-280.3%-246.3%-161.3%-21056.8%
IBM-286.6%-285.8%-218.3%-136.1%-1834.6%
JNJ-357.5%-357.3%-318.0%-236.0%-445075.6%
JPM-742.2%-741.5%-718.6%-408.5%-34259.8%
KO-293.4%-293.2%-263.2%-167.2%-199338.7%
MCD-285.6%-285.1%-231.7%-197.1%-236420.4%
MMM-200.3%-200.0%-153.9%-90.7%-31005.0%
MRK-412.7%-412.4%-375.3%-221.9%-233186.9%
MSFT-1077.0%-1076.5%-1028.9%-887.6%-856471.1%
NKE-74.3%-74.1%-49.8%+10.4%-31048.8%
NVDA-27586.0%-27584.0%-26496.7%-25670.8%-584193.3%
PG-246.9%-246.7%-214.3%-204.3%-59677.6%
SHW-449.0%-448.6%-419.6%-370.9%-231586.6%
TRV-422.1%-421.7%-395.5%-326.9%-11625.7%
UNH-401.4%-400.8%-324.8%-304.5%-350680.8%
V-543.9%-543.7%-498.0%-422.3%-2979.8%
WMT-607.6%-607.2%-544.5%-492.0%-914665.7%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-317.0%-316.6%-284.8%-243.0%-147692.9%
ADI-814.6%-813.7%-769.7%-617.4%-81453.3%
ADP-441.3%-440.7%-421.6%-244.3%-74183.0%
ADSK-432.2%-430.0%-344.5%-218.0%-57778.2%
AEP-305.4%-305.0%-256.1%-162.1%-12976.0%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.9%-253.8%-164.2%-160.4%-25.8%
AMAT-2817.9%-2816.9%-2709.0%-2595.9%-664481.7%
AMD-16807.9%-16805.5%-15667.2%-16164.0%-7310.8%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.7%-2157.6%-2053.8%-1929.3%-95343.9%
AVGO-3403.2%-3401.6%-2943.2%-3096.5%-31964.0%
AXON-3569.4%-3567.2%-3210.3%-2466.9%-94408.8%
BKNG-421.6%-420.9%-372.7%-76.4%-924.2%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-974.8%
CCEP-415.8%-415.0%-377.3%-281.4%-6206.9%
CDNS-1658.0%-1656.7%-1569.0%-1425.5%-16759.5%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.8%-135.7%-118.5%-105.8%-47028.6%
COST-707.4%-707.0%-622.1%-530.0%-12708.2%
CPRT-700.6%-700.2%-640.3%-397.3%-20099.5%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.6%-696.0%-655.6%-524.1%-40337.3%
CTAS-1031.2%-1030.2%-958.7%-716.0%-122028.0%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.8%-462.0%-354.9%-273.2%-1736.1%
EA————n/a
EXC-318.9%-318.2%-300.0%-225.2%-17580.0%
FANG-393.3%-393.0%-339.3%-210.1%-1290.2%
FAST-656.9%-656.4%-628.1%-522.7%-259310.4%
FERn/an/an/an/a-612.3%
FTNT-2745.6%-2745.0%-2682.2%-2439.7%-10079.8%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-213.4%-193.7%-120.8%-33644.0%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.4%-779.3%-754.2%-664.1%-58285.4%
INTC-333.1%-332.3%-263.1%+267.2%-49004.0%
INTU-414.2%-412.5%-341.8%-348.1%-15200.8%
ISRG-612.6%-611.3%-545.8%-517.6%-18045.2%
KHC-56.8%-56.7%-38.3%-16.4%-12.8%
KLAC-3063.6%-3062.4%-2887.2%-2860.9%-289425.6%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10819.6%
LITE-4008.1%-4006.9%-3921.2%-3879.4%-5199.8%
LRCX-4481.4%-4479.6%-4177.4%-4130.6%-159827.3%
MAR-594.3%-593.5%-500.9%-353.7%-2168.2%
MCHP-391.6%-391.0%-285.5%-209.1%-41995.0%
MDLZ-182.0%-181.8%-159.9%-121.0%-403.1%
MELI-1800.1%-1798.0%-1598.2%-1449.0%-6485.2%
META-570.4%-568.9%-535.7%-498.2%-1371.1%
MNST-194.8%-194.4%-174.9%-23.9%-52968.4%
MPWR-2250.5%-2249.2%-2162.6%-2054.4%-13872.8%
MRVL-2679.8%-2679.6%-2404.2%-2558.3%-1683.3%
MSTR-743.9%-743.8%-498.5%+4045.4%+42327.7%
MU-6675.8%-6671.7%-6131.8%-6090.7%-68890.0%
NFLX-743.2%-742.8%-702.7%-598.9%-67143.2%
NXPI-300.5%-299.7%-274.1%-217.0%-1581.8%
ODFL-1063.8%-1063.2%-978.6%-752.7%-36462.3%
ORLY-539.4%-539.2%-502.5%-453.9%-54739.5%
PANW-1299.9%-1299.6%-1121.2%-873.4%-3835.6%
PCAR-580.1%-579.8%-531.6%-509.7%-54712.1%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-196.5%-176.0%-136.1%-37808.9%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.8%-155.7%-129.2%-62.0%-83.2%
QCOM-438.6%-438.3%-375.2%-202.9%-50085.3%
REGN-155.2%-155.1%-131.5%-96.7%-2176.5%
ROP-244.2%-243.9%-222.2%-197.4%-25944.4%
ROST-465.7%-465.3%-383.3%-356.7%-55372.4%
SBUX-232.0%-231.5%-199.9%-168.0%-43087.5%
SHOP-5944.8%-5943.4%+64.6%-5729.8%-8465.7%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-985.3%-984.5%-901.5%-766.9%-5523.9%
STX-3652.5%-3650.4%-3466.3%-3346.3%-7057.1%
TER-1857.0%-1855.5%-1716.3%-1546.5%-31349.6%
TMUS-489.7%-489.4%-436.3%-368.2%-394.2%
TRI-362.7%-361.5%-342.4%-216.3%-549.2%
TSLA-2341.6%-2337.4%+62.0%-86.0%-10764.6%
TTWO-688.9%-688.6%-649.9%-600.6%-5302.0%
TXN-637.7%-637.1%-615.5%-531.7%-37928.3%
VRTX-440.8%-440.4%-412.0%-342.2%-11392.3%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-254.9%
WDAY-263.3%-262.7%-227.0%-175.4%-312.1%
WDC-1171.5%-1168.8%-1075.7%-831.3%-53351.3%
XEL-295.9%-295.7%-274.4%-174.0%-6911.1%
KDP-278.1%-277.9%-233.3%-190.8%-1030.3%
USD/MXN-135.0%-133.0%-121.5%-60.6%-36.0%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18084.4%-17397.4%+12419.9%
Ether————n/a

8 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 10 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
fast 12, slow 26, signal_period 9108.9%-0.11-34.6%-2972.2%
fast 8, slow 17, signal_period 933.9%-0.22-55.8%-3047.2%
fast 12, slow 26, signal_period 518.1%-0.25-58.8%-3062.9%
fast 19, slow 39, signal_period 999.2%-0.12-49.1%-2981.9%
fast 5, slow 35, signal_period 5-41.8%-0.43-76.4%-3122.9%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.33 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+6.8% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+95.6% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.3332 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 71812b470df2 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 26 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). The MACD cross (12/26/9): works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd

Reproduce it with your own strategy