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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · cryptocurrencies · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on BTC/USD?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) beats buy-and-hold on BTC/USD by -15.0 points a year over 12 years.

Total return
×296
Buy and hold
×172
CAGR
38.9%
Sharpe
0.95
Max drawdown
-52.0%
Trades
291
Out of sample
—
Years
12
1×10×100×337×201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyBTC/USD

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) beats buy-and-hold on BTC/USD by -15.0 points a year over 12 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +25.1 points a year.
  3. Total return ×296 versus ×172 for buy-and-hold, with 291 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -52.0%.
  5. It beat before 2020 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #1 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding BTC/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on BTC/USD → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on BTC/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/btc-usd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.