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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on MSTR?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) beats buy-and-hold on MSTR by +14.7 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
×436
Buy and hold
×13
CAGR
24.1%
Sharpe
0.59
Max drawdown
-89.1%
Trades
509
Out of sample
partly
Years
28
0.1×1×10×100×19992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyMSTR

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) beats buy-and-hold on MSTR by +14.7 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +15.1 points a year.
  3. Total return ×436 versus ×13 for buy-and-hold, with 509 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -89.1%.
  6. It beats in both halves of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #4 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MSTR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MSTR → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on MSTR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/mstr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.