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Finaxion Research · MSTR

Which strategy works on MSTR?

On MSTR, 11 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.

Findings

On MSTR, 11 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is the MACD cross (12/26/9): +14.7 points a year over buying and holding MSTR. The worst is 2-day RSI (the Connors rule): -22.0 points a year against buy-and-hold.

  1. On MSTR, 11 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
  2. The best is the MACD cross (12/26/9): +14.7 points a year over buying and holding MSTR.
  3. The worst is 2-day RSI (the Connors rule): -22.0 points a year against buy-and-hold.

The 20 strategies, one by one

StrategyReturnBuy and holdExcess (pts/yr)Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr)Out of sampleTrades
The MACD cross (12/26/9)×436×13+14.7%+15.1%partly509
ADX: trade only in strong trends×408×13+14.4%+14.8%overfit849
Parabolic SAR: follow the dots×238×13+12.0%+12.4%overfit587
Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)×147×13+10.0%+10.4%overfit989
Only invest above the 200-day average×109×13+8.8%+9.1%overfit198
The golden cross (50/200)×76×13+7.2%+7.6%partly38
Wyckoff: buying the accumulation×73×13+7.1%+7.4%overfit198
Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles×59×13+6.2%+6.6%overfit1881
Ichimoku: buy above the cloud×39×13+4.5%+4.8%partly304
The Turtles: 55-day breakout×34×13+4.0%+4.4%partly103
Supertrend: the line that changes colour×20×13+1.8%+2.2%overfit53
Upper Bollinger band breakout724.7%×13-1.6%-1.2%overfit450
ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap170.3%×13-5.8%-5.4%overfit226
ICT / Smart Money: the order block0.1%×13-9.4%-9.0%—6
Smart Money: the liquidity sweep-30.9%×13-10.7%-10.3%overfit66
“Sell in May and go away”-41.0%×13-11.2%-10.9%—56
Bounce off the lower Bollinger band-74.4%×13-14.1%-13.7%overfit206
RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)-75.0%×13-14.2%-13.8%overfit58
Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3)-97.7%×13-22.0%-21.6%overfit340
2-day RSI (the Connors rule)-97.8%×13-22.0%-21.6%overfit668

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