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Finaxion Research · Ichimoku: buy above the cloud · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on MSTR?

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud beats buy-and-hold on MSTR by +4.5 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
×39
Buy and hold
×13
CAGR
13.9%
Sharpe
0.43
Max drawdown
-89.6%
Trades
304
Out of sample
partly
Years
28
0.1×1×10×100×114×19992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyMSTR

Findings

  1. Ichimoku: buy above the cloud beats buy-and-hold on MSTR by +4.5 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +4.8 points a year.
  3. Total return ×39 versus ×13 for buy-and-hold, with 304 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -89.6%.
  6. It beat before 2012 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #16 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MSTR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MSTR → · Full page for Ichimoku: buy above the cloud →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on MSTR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud/mstr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.