FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Trend following · Updated 2026-09-10

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud

Works in few markets

Its ground: crypto, on daily, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 30 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
25 / 489
Vs. index
-6.6 pts/yr
Total return
303.6%
Sharpe
0.07
Max drawdown
-32.3%
Trades
435
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Ichimoku: buy above the cloud?

The Ichimoku: buy above the cloud strategy does not work consistently in any asset class; it does least badly on cryptocurrencies at 2 of 14 (14%), while on forex pairs it beats in 1 of 40. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, but asset by asset in 28 of 958. Of the 25 daily markets where it beats, 11 hold out of sample (44%), and no neighbouring parameter beats the index, indicating the published setting is a point, not a region.

  1. There is no asset class where Ichimoku: buy above the cloud works consistently; it does least badly on cryptocurrencies: 2 of 14 (14%).
  2. It does worst on forex pairs: it beats in 1 of 40.
  3. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, asset by asset in 28 of 958.
  4. Of the 25 daily markets where it beats, 11 hold out of sample (44%).
  5. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  6. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 4 of 118.
  7. It has aged: in 56 markets it beat in the first half of the history and stopped in the second; the reverse happens in only 23.
  8. Its best daily market is BTC/USD: +24.7 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years, 179 trades.
  9. Its worst daily market is NCLH: -19.6 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

The promise

“If price is above the Ichimoku cloud the trend is up and you simply stay long.”

Exactly what we tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)+303.6%+3081.0%-2777.4%-6.6 pts435OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+355.5%+1565.8%-1210.3%-2.9 pts350OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+92.5%+801.9%-709.4%-6.1 pts349OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+330.3%+830.9%-500.6%-5.2 pts295OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+155.0%+820.3%-665.3%-6.6 pts303OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)+29.0%+131.2%-102.2%-10.2 pts306OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)+3841.1%+3081.0%+760.1%+0.7 pts4918—

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)+28184.4%+3081.0%+25103.4%+7.5 pts10765—

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)+1218.5%+3081.0%-1862.5%-2.9 pts14521—

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 20 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 40 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL+51318.8%+322813.1%-271494.2%before 1993607MARGINAL
AMGN+4507.6%+187272.6%-182765.0%before 1993607OVERFIT
AMZN+6421.0%+265196.1%-258775.1%+5.7 pts355MARGINAL
AXP+416.2%+27029.4%-26613.2%before 1993694OVERFIT
BA+14432.9%+108724.7%-94291.8%before 1993770OVERFIT
CAT+4040.6%+172708.3%-168667.7%before 1993732OVERFIT
CRM+985.5%+5992.9%-5007.4%+0.4 pts271MARGINAL
CSCO+8038.8%+222956.6%-214917.8%before 1993486OVERFIT
CVX-54.0%+68037.6%-68091.7%before 19931003OVERFIT
DIS+43036.0%+189847.3%-146811.3%before 1993783OVERFIT
GOOGL+918.8%+13534.3%-12615.5%-0.1 pts248OVERFIT
GS+486.1%+2027.1%-1541.1%-1.8 pts342OVERFIT
HD+7918.6%+1985758.9%-1977840.3%before 1993634OVERFIT
HON+58.5%+21058.8%-21000.3%before 19931010OVERFIT
IBM+535.1%+16203.8%-15668.7%before 1993784OVERFIT
JNJ+1186.6%+445196.6%-444010.0%before 1993887OVERFIT
JPM+349.1%+34522.5%-34173.4%before 1993661OVERFIT
KO+879.4%+199349.6%-198470.1%before 1993921MARGINAL
MCD+1293.2%+236707.0%-235413.7%before 1993852MARGINAL
MMM-14.3%+31160.0%-31174.3%before 1993947OVERFIT
MRK+2545.3%+233375.1%-230829.8%before 1993853OVERFIT
MSFT+1870.7%+859506.0%-857635.2%before 1993557MARGINAL
NKE+4877.8%+32003.7%-27125.8%before 1993556OVERFIT
NVDA+76200.6%+587720.8%-511520.2%+18.5 pts331MARGINAL
PG+123.8%+59706.6%-59582.8%before 1993940OVERFIT
SHW+898.2%+231766.6%-230868.3%before 1993649OVERFIT
TRV+31.1%+12287.7%-12256.6%before 1993715OVERFIT
UNH+1547.6%+353381.4%-351833.8%before 1993576MARGINAL
V+207.6%+2961.1%-2753.6%-5.8 pts267INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+4521.1%+915365.3%-910844.2%before 1993750MARGINAL
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+3956.8%+147731.1%-143774.3%before 1993485OVERFIT
ADI-35.7%+81534.0%-81569.7%before 1993734OVERFIT
ADP+307.3%+74205.9%-73898.6%before 1993719OVERFIT
ADSK+2506.3%+58084.6%-55578.3%before 1993521MARGINAL
AEP+438.2%+13797.6%-13359.4%before 1993862OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+261.8%+3338.4%-3076.6%-5.1 pts298OVERFIT
AMAT+36773.9%+664974.8%-628200.9%before 1993554MARGINAL
AMD+242336.8%+14863.3%+227473.5%before 1993464GENERALIZED
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+12350.8%+96277.5%-83926.7%+5.6 pts426MARGINAL
AVGO+292.6%+32512.1%-32219.5%-6.3 pts318INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+123075.5%+123065.2%+10.3%+23.2 pts257MARGINAL
BKNG+3056.4%+922.2%+2134.2%+4.8 pts331OVERFIT
BKR-2.6%+933.9%-936.5%before 1993537OVERFIT
CCEP+238.7%+7081.8%-6843.2%before 1993585OVERFIT
CDNS+1004.3%+16839.0%-15834.7%before 1993528MARGINAL
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+526.9%+47049.9%-46523.0%before 1993589OVERFIT
COST+226.8%+12800.7%-12573.9%before 1993546OVERFIT
CPRT+1345.8%+21554.9%-20209.2%-2.3 pts419OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+72.0%+40426.1%-40354.2%before 1993645OVERFIT
CTAS+1285.9%+123411.3%-122125.4%before 1993607MARGINAL
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+282.3%+3002.6%-2720.3%-4.8 pts261OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+1173.7%+17730.6%-16556.9%before 1993760OVERFIT
FANG+57.0%+1406.8%-1349.8%-11.5 pts233INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+338.7%+262350.7%-262012.0%before 1993493OVERFIT
FER+30.5%+593.7%-563.2%-12.9 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+720.3%+10184.6%-9464.3%-0.8 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+121.4%+33594.8%-33473.4%before 1993487OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+923.1%+58789.5%-57866.4%before 1993479OVERFIT
INTC+4890.5%+49216.9%-44326.4%before 1993598MARGINAL
INTU+152.2%+15430.2%-15278.0%-8.0 pts451OVERFIT
ISRG+2469.7%+18484.9%-16015.2%+4.8 pts264MARGINAL
KDP+151.4%+1090.2%-938.9%-6.6 pts259INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-36.0%-42.2%+6.1%-18.3 pts131INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+2789.8%+289399.1%-286609.4%before 1993566OVERFIT
LIN+56.8%+10777.0%-10720.2%before 1993486OVERFIT
LITE+968.5%+5280.9%-4312.5%+9.6 pts141INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+16443.0%+159814.6%-143371.6%before 1993500OVERFIT
MAR+116.4%+2539.5%-2423.1%-6.2 pts404OVERFIT
MCHP+27.6%+41961.5%-41933.9%-10.1 pts526OVERFIT
MDLZ-56.4%+461.4%-517.8%-12.7 pts407OVERFIT
MELI+1794.3%+6911.0%-5116.7%+5.6 pts197INCONCLUSIVE
META+986.3%+1410.2%-423.9%+3.0 pts152INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+2633.3%+61968.9%-59335.6%before 1993480MARGINAL
MPWR+1119.8%+15002.1%-13882.3%+1.2 pts252MARGINAL
MRVL+819.1%+1645.0%-825.9%+0.4 pts326OVERFIT
MSTR+3760.5%+1158.6%+2601.9%+4.8 pts304MARGINAL
MU+31598.8%+70877.8%-39278.9%before 1993486MARGINAL
NFLX+7097.0%+67643.2%-60546.2%+9.0 pts269MARGINAL
NXPI+131.0%+1721.2%-1590.2%-9.3 pts204INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-85.4%+36444.7%-36530.1%before 1993636OVERFIT
ORLY+418.8%+55255.7%-54837.0%-5.9 pts518OVERFIT
PANW+388.2%+4215.4%-3827.2%-3.0 pts165INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+520.0%+57106.4%-56586.4%before 1993636OVERFIT
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+103.2%+37760.7%-37657.5%before 1993822OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-5.3%+44.7%-50.0%-14.8 pts159INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+2648.0%+50430.1%-47782.2%before 1993432MARGINAL
REGN+111.0%+3718.3%-3607.3%before 1993477OVERFIT
ROP+611.0%+26003.6%-25392.5%before 1993493OVERFIT
ROST+3668.9%+55801.1%-52132.2%before 1993473MARGINAL
SBUX+1008.3%+43019.5%-42011.2%before 1993431MARGINAL
SHOP+743.3%+8568.8%-7825.5%+7.0 pts137INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-46.4%+5482.1%-5528.4%before 1993512OVERFIT
STX+15522.8%+15614.6%-91.8%+12.3 pts242OVERFIT
TER+17409.5%+31309.8%-13900.2%before 1993668MARGINAL
TMUS+64.0%+318.0%-253.9%-8.3 pts274INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-13.2%+578.4%-591.6%-11.2 pts353OVERFIT
TSLA+1926.1%+23002.8%-21076.7%+5.3 pts208INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+115.1%+5509.7%-5394.6%-7.4 pts378OVERFIT
TXN+1270.4%+38040.6%-36770.2%before 1993726OVERFIT
VRTX+3.7%+12000.4%-11996.8%before 1993481MARGINAL
WBD+116.9%+302.2%-185.2%-7.4 pts271MARGINAL
WDAY+13.2%+305.5%-292.4%-13.9 pts197INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+12788.0%+66202.2%-53414.2%before 1993574OVERFIT
XEL+60.0%+7388.9%-7328.9%before 1993816OVERFIT
A+349.4%+486.3%-136.9%-2.6 pts307OVERFIT
ABBV+14.5%+1156.0%-1141.5%-13.8 pts207INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+224.5%+62056.2%-61831.7%before 1993653OVERFIT
ACGL+23.6%+4268.0%-4244.4%-9.9 pts512OVERFIT
ACN+398.4%+1726.5%-1328.1%-2.9 pts285OVERFIT
ADM+102.3%+9265.6%-9163.4%before 1993660OVERFIT
AEE-8.9%+813.9%-822.9%-9.7 pts438OVERFIT
AES+1341.3%+647.5%+693.8%before 1993489OVERFIT
AFL+779.7%+205848.4%-205068.8%before 1993730OVERFIT
AIG+1583.2%+468.3%+1115.0%before 1993666OVERFIT
AIZ+289.6%+1585.5%-1295.9%-4.6 pts297OVERFIT
AJG+979.1%+41899.5%-40920.3%before 1993533OVERFIT
AKAM+100.9%-25.2%+126.1%-5.9 pts340OVERFIT
ALB+116.3%+3091.3%-2975.1%-8.5 pts478OVERFIT
ALGN+1264.1%+846.9%+417.2%+1.9 pts284OVERFIT
ALL+38.5%+3674.2%-3635.8%-9.8 pts477OVERFIT
ALLE+24.7%+265.9%-241.2%-12.2 pts161INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-22.9%+100.6%-123.5%-16.8 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
AME+21.5%+25325.0%-25303.6%before 1993649OVERFIT
AMP+294.3%+2154.1%-1859.8%-4.4 pts283OVERFIT
AMT+285.2%+1310.2%-1024.9%-4.2 pts412OVERFIT
ANET+308.5%+5592.8%-5284.3%-1.5 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
AON+207.9%+29815.0%-29607.2%before 1993610OVERFIT
AOS+2659.5%+13924.9%-11265.4%before 1993513OVERFIT
APA-57.4%+2417.2%-2474.6%before 1993657OVERFIT
APD+1.8%+20722.2%-20720.4%before 1993733OVERFIT
APH+1314.0%+146951.6%-145637.6%before 1993462MARGINAL
APO+750.2%+1845.9%-1095.7%+0.9 pts181INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+46.7%+174.0%-127.2%-12.6 pts174INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-25.5%+624.3%-649.8%-10.7 pts443OVERFIT
ARES+215.1%+1191.9%-976.8%-4.2 pts143INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-53.6%+13696.4%-13750.0%before 1993768OVERFIT
AVB-26.5%+42.3%-68.8%-18.2 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+65.6%+8544.4%-8478.8%before 1993713OVERFIT
AWK+44.4%+950.9%-906.5%-9.8 pts249INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+632.6%+40631.8%-39999.1%before 1993432MARGINAL
BAC+575.4%+4053.1%-3477.7%before 1993645OVERFIT
BALL+485.9%+49568.6%-49082.7%before 1993713OVERFIT
BAX-82.6%+1778.4%-1861.0%before 1993743OVERFIT
BBY+69116.8%+89506.6%-20389.9%before 1993501OVERFIT
BDX-40.8%+21440.4%-21481.2%before 1993815OVERFIT
BEN+1767.5%+130378.8%-128611.3%before 1993537OVERFIT
BF-B-17.0%+14873.5%-14890.5%before 1993671OVERFIT
BG+78.2%+1105.5%-1027.4%-7.2 pts332OVERFIT
BIIB+158.6%+6832.8%-6674.2%before 1993483OVERFIT
BLDR+776.1%+393.7%+382.3%-0.3 pts220OVERFIT
BLK+390.5%+13724.5%-13334.0%-2.6 pts351OVERFIT
BMY-52.6%+23662.6%-23715.2%before 1993835OVERFIT
BNY-7.2%+32230.3%-32237.5%before 1993783OVERFIT
BR+546.5%+1234.2%-687.7%-0.9 pts239INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+40.3%+2072.5%-2032.2%-9.2 pts497OVERFIT
BRO+678.5%+76212.8%-75534.3%before 1993729OVERFIT
BSX+139.9%+1028.2%-888.2%before 1993462OVERFIT
BX+753.8%+1023.3%-269.6%+1.0 pts221INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+63.7%+888.9%-825.3%-7.8 pts411OVERFIT
C+120.3%+1897.9%-1777.6%before 1993646OVERFIT
CAH+436.9%+39284.8%-38847.8%before 1993567OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+234.5%+80461.2%-80226.7%before 1993644OVERFIT
CB+81.4%+6587.6%-6506.2%-9.0 pts504OVERFIT
CBOE+224.7%+1060.1%-835.4%-7.1 pts209INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+867.1%+2283.8%-1416.7%-0.2 pts283OVERFIT
CCI+37.6%+899.9%-862.3%-7.9 pts452OVERFIT
CCL+18.2%+1154.4%-1136.2%before 1993532OVERFIT
CDW+52.6%+858.2%-805.6%-11.2 pts175INCONCLUSIVE
CF+1013.7%+5815.9%-4802.3%+1.1 pts277OVERFIT
CFG+95.5%+349.9%-254.3%-8.0 pts152INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+410.8%+93736.5%-93325.7%before 1993651MARGINAL
CHRW-39.2%+4307.6%-4346.9%-11.1 pts434OVERFIT
CHTR+107.1%+335.5%-228.4%-9.7 pts193INCONCLUSIVE
CI+1792.1%+12980.8%-11188.8%before 1993550GENERALIZED
CIEN+381.9%+195.6%+186.3%-4.4 pts324OVERFIT
CINF+636.6%+41545.9%-40909.3%before 1993610OVERFIT
CL-51.2%+20919.0%-20970.2%before 1993836OVERFIT
CLX-7.1%+6184.2%-6191.3%before 1993759OVERFIT
CME+777.9%+6884.2%-6106.3%-1.8 pts321MARGINAL
CMG+823.9%+4221.6%-3397.7%+0.3 pts253OVERFIT
CMI+35307.9%+28968.2%+6339.6%before 1993626MARGINAL
CMS+1126.0%+630.8%+495.2%before 1993664MARGINAL
CNC+13.1%+4388.8%-4375.8%-9.6 pts342OVERFIT
CNP+185.6%+13998.0%-13812.4%before 1993930OVERFIT
COF+194.7%+5724.6%-5529.8%-7.7 pts433OVERFIT
COHR+2461.6%+68288.9%-65827.3%before 1993532OVERFIT
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+1665.6%+879.8%+785.8%before 1993491OVERFIT
COP+166.6%+13561.7%-13395.1%before 1993695OVERFIT
COR+1152.2%+17062.1%-15909.9%-2.6 pts385MARGINAL
CPAY+51.0%+1383.7%-1332.7%-11.6 pts209INCONCLUSIVE
CPT-17.0%+2453.9%-2471.0%-11.5 pts514OVERFIT
CRH-4.2%+7617.9%-7622.0%before 1993522OVERFIT
CRL+151.8%+1210.2%-1058.4%-4.9 pts371OVERFIT
CSGP+1274.8%+3390.6%-2115.9%+0.9 pts351MARGINAL
CTSH+1227.2%+35498.3%-34271.1%+0.6 pts359OVERFIT
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+387.6%+15658.6%-15271.0%before 1993722OVERFIT
D+23.6%+17762.4%-17738.8%before 1993720OVERFIT
DAL-58.9%+339.1%-398.0%-15.3 pts288INCONCLUSIVE
DD-52.6%+10113.6%-10166.3%before 1993880OVERFIT
DE+1021.6%+101089.1%-100067.5%before 1993705OVERFIT
DECK+701.1%+7024.7%-6323.6%-4.3 pts470OVERFIT
DELL+1556.5%+4059.8%-2503.2%+17.2 pts85INCONCLUSIVE
DG+31.7%+550.3%-518.5%-12.6 pts223INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+326.7%+9626.0%-9299.3%-5.1 pts367OVERFIT
DHI+117.2%+13111.0%-12993.9%before 1993494OVERFIT
DHR+988.7%+483557.2%-482568.6%before 1993729OVERFIT
DLR+135.8%+3540.7%-3404.9%-7.2 pts313OVERFIT
DLTR+475.4%+10731.5%-10256.0%-5.4 pts373OVERFIT
DOC+100.3%+6136.8%-6036.6%before 1993570OVERFIT
DOV+227.5%+29264.8%-29037.3%before 1993644OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+1412.3%+5638.6%-4226.2%+2.0 pts225OVERFIT
DRI+36.7%+6998.7%-6962.0%-9.8 pts473OVERFIT
DTE+146.0%+35264.3%-35118.3%before 1993984OVERFIT
DUK+197.7%+16239.0%-16041.4%before 1993666OVERFIT
DVA+288.2%+4219.3%-3931.0%-6.1 pts414OVERFIT
DVN+441.1%+1411.9%-970.9%before 1993565OVERFIT
EBAY+13.0%+14035.1%-14022.1%-8.8 pts422OVERFIT
ECHO+12.8%+227.3%-214.4%-10.7 pts226INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+183.8%+20174.1%-19990.2%before 1993717OVERFIT
ED+1697.2%+45081.6%-43384.4%before 1993760OVERFIT
EFX+4245.5%+77234.4%-72988.9%before 1993593MARGINAL
EG-61.4%+2975.7%-3037.2%-13.6 pts503OVERFIT
EIX+521.3%+14610.5%-14089.2%before 1993746OVERFIT
EL+74.4%+1551.3%-1476.9%-8.7 pts417OVERFIT
ELV+136.2%+2326.9%-2190.7%-6.7 pts334OVERFIT
EME+744.4%+59203.5%-58459.0%-4.2 pts462OVERFIT
EMR-54.6%+19839.1%-19893.8%before 1993869OVERFIT
EOG+208.1%+9279.7%-9071.6%before 1993483OVERFIT
EQIX+1354.3%+240.5%+1113.8%+2.4 pts353OVERFIT
EQR+2.8%+44.2%-41.4%-14.9 pts122INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+207.2%+19557.1%-19350.0%before 1993667OVERFIT
ERIE+190.0%+3362.8%-3172.8%-7.1 pts443OVERFIT
ES+85.1%+2960.1%-2875.0%before 1993748OVERFIT
ESS+187.9%+5274.8%-5086.9%-7.7 pts434OVERFIT
ETN+2104.7%+116541.5%-114436.8%before 1993689OVERFIT
ETR+1302.8%+19797.9%-18495.1%before 1993678MARGINAL
EVRG+79.9%+5086.7%-5006.8%before 1993810OVERFIT
EW-17.5%+6500.0%-6517.5%-8.9 pts379OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD-51.5%+148324.6%-148376.1%before 1993739OVERFIT
EXPE+50.5%+916.1%-865.7%-9.1 pts263OVERFIT
EXR+158.1%+2698.9%-2540.8%-6.9 pts308OVERFIT
F+3702.3%+6752.4%-3050.1%before 1993706OVERFIT
FCX+1050.1%+1061.6%-11.5%-2.5 pts387OVERFIT
FDS+606.1%+9088.9%-8482.9%-3.6 pts391OVERFIT
FDX+1020.9%+53776.9%-52756.1%before 1993675OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+0.0%+563.0%-563.0%-9.5 pts378OVERFIT
FFIV+489.2%+5374.0%-4884.8%-1.8 pts319OVERFIT
FICO+213.8%+94747.8%-94534.0%before 1993538OVERFIT
FIS+152.8%+363.8%-211.0%-5.7 pts324OVERFIT
FITB+1822.8%+28280.0%-26457.3%before 1993572OVERFIT
FIX+726.7%+11966.2%-11239.5%-2.0 pts400OVERFIT
FLEX+1948.6%+7898.6%-5950.0%-1.1 pts456OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+2.6%+24360.2%-24357.7%before 1993804OVERFIT
FSLR+513.2%+716.1%-202.9%-1.4 pts176OVERFIT
FTV-23.4%+100.1%-123.6%-18.1 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
GD+12957.1%+221689.9%-208732.8%before 1993849MARGINAL
GDDY+27.7%+389.4%-361.7%-11.9 pts129INCONCLUSIVE
GE+3550.7%+54356.2%-50805.5%before 1993854OVERFIT
GEN+241.1%+12085.6%-11844.5%before 1993469MARGINAL
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS-15.5%+15015.5%-15031.0%before 1993699OVERFIT
GL+375.7%+12680.6%-12304.9%before 1993664OVERFIT
GLW+21477.2%+19301.2%+2176.0%before 1993546OVERFIT
GM+90.4%+240.1%-149.7%-10.3 pts175INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+332.7%+2091.1%-1758.4%-5.3 pts216INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-79.1%+12785.5%-12864.6%before 1993795OVERFIT
GPN+126.2%+2567.9%-2441.7%-5.8 pts321OVERFIT
GRMN+1948.2%+5377.3%-3429.2%+3.5 pts301OVERFIT
GWW+1420.1%+55300.2%-53880.0%before 1993672OVERFIT
HAL+1767.0%+2860.8%-1093.8%before 1993646OVERFIT
HAS+615.5%+201529.8%-200914.3%before 1993657OVERFIT
HBAN+39.0%+3799.5%-3760.5%before 1993670OVERFIT
HCA+43.1%+1699.7%-1656.7%-11.8 pts233INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+630.8%+951.1%-320.3%-3.7 pts411MARGINAL
HII+865.0%+883.6%-18.6%+1.7 pts138INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+35.8%+659.1%-623.4%-11.7 pts204INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+107.6%+625.0%-517.5%-7.9 pts169INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+2397.9%+77945.5%-75547.6%before 1993791OVERFIT
HRL+205.8%+19046.1%-18840.3%before 1993692OVERFIT
HSIC+16.2%+1913.1%-1896.9%-10.1 pts467OVERFIT
HST+388.8%+12843.9%-12455.0%before 1993656OVERFIT
HSY+389.6%+53964.6%-53575.0%before 1993628MARGINAL
HUBB+60.0%+3853.5%-3793.5%-9.6 pts490OVERFIT
HUM+276.7%+20168.9%-19892.2%before 1993572OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+487.8%+1526.1%-1038.3%-1.2 pts219INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-0.9%+2307.9%-2308.7%-11.2 pts305OVERFIT
IEX+972.3%+12761.2%-11788.9%before 1993499MARGINAL
IFF-76.5%+4754.9%-4831.5%before 1993763OVERFIT
INCY+1884.5%+6471.7%-4587.3%-1.4 pts369OVERFIT
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-63.0%+4590.1%-4653.2%before 1993983OVERFIT
IQV+121.7%+520.3%-398.5%-8.1 pts159INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+358.9%+9911.6%-9552.7%-5.2 pts442OVERFIT
IT+1145.2%+6431.0%-5285.8%-2.9 pts423OVERFIT
ITW+644.8%+51254.1%-50609.2%before 1993731MARGINAL
IVZ+368.7%+1093.8%-725.1%-5.6 pts367OVERFIT
J+1399.6%+33544.7%-32145.2%before 1993547MARGINAL
JBHT+214.2%+24926.6%-24712.4%before 1993594OVERFIT
JBL+3073.1%+41217.7%-38144.6%+0.0 pts432MARGINAL
JCI+544.4%+4376.5%-3832.2%before 1993544OVERFIT
JKHY+1927.6%+71288.2%-69360.6%before 1993601OVERFIT
KEY+7.1%+1405.6%-1398.5%before 1993512OVERFIT
KEYS+36.9%+1042.3%-1005.4%-11.7 pts176INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+309.5%+3036.5%-2727.0%before 1993432MARGINAL
KKR+371.6%+1784.9%-1413.3%-4.7 pts201INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+145.7%+16039.9%-15894.2%before 1993631MARGINAL
KMI+22.6%+117.5%-94.9%-12.6 pts202INCONCLUSIVE
KR+6727.9%+182706.1%-175978.1%before 1993810OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+1644.4%+22398.8%-20754.4%before 1993630OVERFIT
LDOS+74.6%+530.2%-455.6%-8.2 pts241OVERFIT
LEN-42.7%+29032.9%-29075.6%before 1993692OVERFIT
LH-13.8%+1408.2%-1422.0%before 1993529OVERFIT
LHX+546.8%+8519.5%-7972.7%before 1993532OVERFIT
LII+416.3%+3122.4%-2706.2%-2.3 pts330MARGINAL
LLY+344.4%+129720.0%-129375.6%before 1993793OVERFIT
LMT+2175.4%+67444.7%-65269.2%before 1993835OVERFIT
LNT+63.1%+9408.5%-9345.4%before 1993770OVERFIT
LOW+2223.7%+77328.4%-75104.7%before 1993578OVERFIT
LULU+635.1%+759.0%-123.9%-0.1 pts195INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+3422.8%+24508.5%-21085.7%before 1993554MARGINAL
LVS+182.3%+50.3%+132.0%-6.0 pts276OVERFIT
LYB+480.1%+648.8%-168.8%-2.7 pts185INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+101.0%+1558.0%-1456.9%-7.7 pts289OVERFIT
MA+1028.6%+14066.9%-13038.3%+1.5 pts265OVERFIT
MAA-19.2%+3525.2%-3544.3%-11.5 pts540OVERFIT
MAS-38.0%+7423.1%-7461.1%before 1993686OVERFIT
MCK+1031.3%+6946.5%-5915.2%-3.2 pts377OVERFIT
MCO+354.6%+7753.9%-7399.3%-6.2 pts433OVERFIT
MDT+774.8%+51421.0%-50646.2%before 1993721OVERFIT
MET-39.3%+1176.9%-1216.3%-10.2 pts447OVERFIT
MGM+32.3%+1501.4%-1469.1%before 1993496OVERFIT
MKC+108.7%+14401.8%-14293.2%before 1993747OVERFIT
MLM+157.1%+3089.6%-2932.4%-7.9 pts434OVERFIT
MO+86096.7%+2914781.4%-2828684.7%before 1993756MARGINAL
MOS+69.4%+268.9%-199.5%before 1993457OVERFIT
MPC+329.1%+2972.8%-2643.6%-4.5 pts229INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+203.6%+21192.9%-20989.2%before 1993729OVERFIT
MS+368.9%+6159.1%-5790.2%-6.2 pts418OVERFIT
MSCI+87.8%+2406.7%-2318.9%-7.8 pts248INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+14613.9%+79243.2%-64629.2%before 1993753MARGINAL
MTB+724.1%+105049.8%-104325.7%before 1993650OVERFIT
MTD+539.8%+9346.3%-8806.5%-2.8 pts343OVERFIT
NCLH-48.8%-34.9%-13.9%-19.6 pts184INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+131.0%+2371.2%-2240.3%-7.4 pts323OVERFIT
NDSN+302.6%+37769.3%-37466.7%before 1993741OVERFIT
NEE+555.9%+23772.9%-23217.0%before 1993656OVERFIT
NEM-62.7%+2099.8%-2162.5%before 1993611OVERFIT
NI+21.1%+5234.9%-5213.8%before 1993756OVERFIT
NOC+613.2%+23369.3%-22756.1%before 1993619OVERFIT
NOW+233.0%+2907.9%-2675.0%-6.0 pts181INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+272.0%+1442.6%-1170.6%-5.1 pts282OVERFIT
NSC+237.3%+24520.7%-24283.3%before 1993611OVERFIT
NTAP+2301.4%+19659.8%-17358.3%+0.4 pts415MARGINAL
NTRS+971.4%+53074.8%-52103.4%before 1993621OVERFIT
NUE+2051.2%+70209.1%-68157.8%before 1993583OVERFIT
NVR+6488.8%+61512.0%-55023.2%+2.7 pts406MARGINAL
NWS-13.5%+152.4%-165.9%-15.5 pts177INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-9.4%+122.2%-131.7%-15.1 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
O+2.9%+5366.4%-5363.5%-11.0 pts514OVERFIT
OKE+2089.7%+19101.6%-17011.9%before 1993645OVERFIT
OMC+449.2%+15677.5%-15228.3%before 1993619MARGINAL
ON+377.3%+208.7%+168.6%-2.3 pts342OVERFIT
ORCL+692.9%+296729.4%-296036.5%before 1993572OVERFIT
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+256.5%+3580.0%-3323.5%before 1993631OVERFIT
PCG+458.5%+1389.7%-931.2%before 1993734OVERFIT
PEG+280.0%+18884.4%-18604.3%before 1993672OVERFIT
PFE+29.5%+20062.7%-20033.2%before 1993765OVERFIT
PFG+48.3%+920.1%-871.8%-8.5 pts347OVERFIT
PGR+2963.1%+819581.9%-816618.8%before 1993620OVERFIT
PH+412.6%+41129.4%-40716.8%before 1993589OVERFIT
PHM+8096.7%+95847.7%-87751.0%before 1993588OVERFIT
PLD+107.8%+1782.5%-1674.8%-6.7 pts416OVERFIT
PM+69.6%+785.7%-716.1%-9.3 pts271INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+375.7%+37937.9%-37562.1%before 1993709OVERFIT
PNR+86.0%+11510.8%-11424.9%before 1993692OVERFIT
PNW+117.5%+2247.6%-2130.1%before 1993728OVERFIT
PODD+209.1%+831.5%-622.3%-4.8 pts222INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+639.5%+21327.4%-20687.9%before 1993614OVERFIT
PPL+616.8%+7311.8%-6695.0%before 1993604OVERFIT
PRU+47.4%+767.8%-720.4%-8.5 pts353OVERFIT
PSA+19.0%+13958.7%-13939.7%before 1993646OVERFIT
PSKY-4.4%-34.8%+30.4%-11.3 pts231OVERFIT
PSX+162.9%+1071.7%-908.7%-7.6 pts169INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-11.2%+8443.5%-8454.6%before 1993503OVERFIT
PWR+455.0%+8155.1%-7700.1%-3.0 pts418OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+692.8%+4611.6%-3918.8%-4.5 pts432OVERFIT
REG+43.1%+2046.5%-2003.3%-9.7 pts472OVERFIT
RF+98.9%+7230.0%-7131.1%before 1993588OVERFIT
RJF+642.2%+52691.1%-52048.9%before 1993587OVERFIT
RL+3.4%+1376.9%-1373.6%-9.4 pts410OVERFIT
RMD+301.6%+43254.4%-42952.8%-6.2 pts385OVERFIT
ROK+2005.0%+57325.7%-55320.7%before 1993636MARGINAL
ROL-45.4%+36503.9%-36549.4%before 1993728OVERFIT
RSG+3.4%+1977.7%-1974.3%-8.7 pts427OVERFIT
RTX+3633.5%+231131.9%-227498.3%before 1993807OVERFIT
RVTY+4265.6%+25547.2%-21281.6%before 1993665OVERFIT
SBAC+1222.8%+2259.6%-1036.8%+1.5 pts362OVERFIT
SCHW+1558.5%+45501.9%-43943.3%before 1993489OVERFIT
SJM-59.5%+1119.0%-1178.4%-13.9 pts443OVERFIT
SLB-42.1%+1125.4%-1167.5%before 1993633OVERFIT
SMCI+845.3%+4155.7%-3310.4%+1.2 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+14.1%+12522.0%-12507.9%before 1993730OVERFIT
SO+294.3%+32617.4%-32323.1%before 1993654OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+332.5%+5330.6%-4998.1%-6.3 pts442OVERFIT
SPGI+4735.3%+140503.3%-135768.0%before 1993667MARGINAL
SRE+76.4%+1463.0%-1386.6%-6.8 pts356OVERFIT
STE+89.1%+15491.4%-15402.3%before 1993467OVERFIT
STLD+95.2%+7831.8%-7736.6%-7.7 pts430OVERFIT
STT+4041.2%+199686.1%-195644.9%before 1993603OVERFIT
STZ+232.6%+10007.0%-9774.4%before 1993404OVERFIT
SW+167.9%+775.0%-607.0%-6.5 pts179INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+267.8%+5887.9%-5620.1%before 1993655OVERFIT
SWKS+29.5%+1317.3%-1287.8%before 1993590OVERFIT
SYF+56.5%+325.2%-268.7%-10.2 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+795.0%+430371.4%-429576.5%before 1993689OVERFIT
SYY+298.3%+115885.9%-115587.7%before 1993729OVERFIT
T+243.9%+10219.8%-9975.9%before 1993595OVERFIT
TAP-70.4%+518.8%-589.2%before 1993667OVERFIT
TDG+123.4%+13285.3%-13161.9%-7.0 pts336OVERFIT
TDY-33.0%+7164.6%-7197.6%-9.9 pts448OVERFIT
TECH+1227.1%+79246.8%-78019.7%before 1993539OVERFIT
TEL+160.8%+671.1%-510.2%-5.7 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+260.5%+10226.4%-9965.9%before 1993614OVERFIT
TGT+2636.4%+90566.5%-87930.1%before 1993665OVERFIT
TJX+277.7%+36154.4%-35876.8%before 1993616OVERFIT
TKO+46.7%+1638.9%-1592.2%-7.4 pts402OVERFIT
TMO+1559.0%+36784.3%-35225.3%before 1993609OVERFIT
TPL+124467.7%+75277.1%+49190.6%before 1993538MARGINAL
TPR+1551.6%+7766.6%-6215.0%+2.8 pts284OVERFIT
TRGP+813.3%+2202.9%-1389.6%+0.8 pts215INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+1736.8%+3366.4%-1629.6%before 1993405OVERFIT
TROW+289.6%+35932.6%-35643.0%before 1993526OVERFIT
TSCO+1023.3%+15199.0%-14175.7%-3.2 pts403OVERFIT
TSN+974.3%+4340.8%-3366.5%before 1993552OVERFIT
TT+620.9%+49748.2%-49127.2%before 1993662OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+1013.2%+4901.2%-3888.0%before 1993760OVERFIT
TYL+3201.2%+43359.1%-40157.8%before 1993583OVERFIT
UAL-44.1%+240.6%-284.8%-14.0 pts328OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+3.0%+14119.5%-14116.5%before 1993758OVERFIT
UHS+2375.2%+15293.2%-12917.9%before 1993517OVERFIT
ULTA+42.1%+1721.3%-1679.2%-9.1 pts279INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+109.9%+30311.4%-30201.5%before 1993721OVERFIT
UPS-87.2%+233.2%-320.4%-15.9 pts438OVERFIT
URI+3766.4%+7088.3%-3321.9%+4.2 pts284OVERFIT
USB+1110.6%+44799.0%-43688.4%before 1993669OVERFIT
VEEV+71.8%+668.8%-597.0%-9.9 pts189INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+709.4%+23394.0%-22684.6%before 1993595OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+364.5%+48759.3%-48394.8%before 1993732OVERFIT
VRSK+53.4%+648.8%-595.4%-11.9 pts223INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+1305.1%+5322.0%-4016.9%+0.4 pts361OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+49.5%+1496.8%-1447.3%-8.3 pts417OVERFIT
VTRS-61.5%+1568.8%-1630.3%before 1993579OVERFIT
VZ+114.6%+4889.1%-4774.5%before 1993563OVERFIT
WAB+37.1%+4137.7%-4100.6%-9.8 pts427OVERFIT
WAT+612.9%+10865.4%-10252.5%-3.9 pts389OVERFIT
WEC+69.7%+23656.8%-23587.0%before 1993710OVERFIT
WELL+834.6%+58774.1%-57939.5%before 1993629OVERFIT
WFC+125.9%+63452.2%-63326.3%before 1993766OVERFIT
WM+90.3%+8471.2%-8380.9%before 1993542OVERFIT
WMB+4258.9%+11974.1%-7715.2%before 1993568OVERFIT
WSM+2243.3%+69865.8%-67622.4%before 1993597OVERFIT
WST+9292.3%+79208.6%-69916.3%before 1993502GENERALIZED
WTW-32.2%+1181.6%-1213.9%-10.9 pts377OVERFIT
WY+0.5%+1781.4%-1780.9%before 1993806OVERFIT
WYNN+195.7%+1217.6%-1021.8%-6.7 pts302OVERFIT
XOM-1.5%+183657.9%-183659.4%before 19931021OVERFIT
XYL+131.2%+455.0%-323.9%-9.4 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+420.8%+527.5%-106.8%+1.9 pts121INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-35.0%+4282.5%-4317.5%-10.8 pts502OVERFIT
ZBH-7.3%+292.2%-299.4%-10.0 pts343OVERFIT
ZBRA+31.7%+8617.7%-8586.0%before 1993467OVERFIT
ZTS+87.0%+179.3%-92.3%-9.9 pts152INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 1 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD-7.3%-3.1%-4.2%-11.4 pts349OVERFIT
GBP/USD-22.8%-21.2%-1.6%-12.2 pts313OVERFIT
USD/JPY+8.9%+40.2%-31.4%-9.9 pts440OVERFIT
USD/MXN+36.2%+49.9%-13.7%-9.7 pts292OVERFIT
AUD/USD+11.0%-6.6%+17.6%-10.7 pts309OVERFIT
USD/CAD-14.1%+1.7%-15.8%-11.8 pts348OVERFIT
USD/CHF-45.1%-41.4%-3.7%-13.7 pts322OVERFIT
NZD/USD-9.9%-8.1%-1.8%-11.5 pts297OVERFIT

Crypto · 2 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 2 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin+28139.6%+17075.3%+11064.3%+24.7 pts179INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+1848.3%+859.3%+988.9%+4.9 pts183INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.2%-969.7%+988.9%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-87.6%-78.9%-61.0%-26.3%-4.2%
GBP/USD-87.5%-79.8%-28.3%-25.0%-1.6%
USD/JPY-135.8%-109.1%-67.3%-49.6%-31.4%
AUD/USD————+17.6%
USD/CAD-136.7%-129.1%-74.4%-39.5%-15.8%
USD/CHF-85.1%-80.9%-35.1%-7.3%-3.7%
NZD/USD-82.5%-75.6%-46.1%-14.7%-1.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-448.8%-375.2%-203.2%-2777.4%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-696.5%-534.5%-349.2%-1210.3%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-303.4%-233.7%-137.8%-709.4%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-262.2%-186.7%-158.1%-500.6%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-390.8%-313.3%-230.3%-665.3%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-89.6%-55.8%-22.2%-102.2%
AAPL-1349.6%-1332.8%-1080.1%-806.7%-271494.2%
AMGN-379.1%-377.9%-244.7%-188.4%-182765.0%
AMZN-836.5%-787.9%-719.2%-557.6%-258775.1%
AXP-573.8%-568.0%-476.1%-349.6%-26613.2%
BA-166.5%-154.3%-62.5%-12.6%-94291.8%
CAT-1513.0%-1496.5%-1230.6%-1145.0%-168667.7%
CRM-339.5%-336.1%-241.3%-241.4%-5007.4%
CSCO-570.4%-569.0%-491.6%-421.4%-214917.8%
CVX-358.2%-356.6%-290.9%-273.2%-68091.7%
DIS-114.8%-111.8%-32.8%+116.9%-146811.3%
GOOGL-920.8%-915.7%-865.3%-759.9%-12615.5%
GS-723.2%-715.1%-502.9%-486.9%-1541.1%
HD-324.2%-321.0%-233.0%-110.9%-1977840.3%
HON-280.6%-277.9%-211.5%-194.0%-21000.3%
IBM-286.6%-278.9%-128.6%-202.3%-15668.7%
JNJ-357.5%-355.8%-300.1%-199.5%-444010.0%
JPM-742.2%-740.2%-554.3%-538.3%-34173.4%
KO-293.4%-291.6%-240.5%-208.7%-198470.1%
MCD-285.6%-282.8%-242.5%-201.6%-235413.7%
MMM-200.3%-197.3%-130.3%-152.8%-31174.3%
MRK-412.7%-410.9%-336.4%-324.0%-230829.8%
MSFT-1077.0%-1071.3%-962.5%-916.8%-857635.2%
NKE-74.3%-70.9%-47.8%-12.9%-27125.8%
NVDA-27585.9%-27412.1%-26727.4%-23828.0%-511520.2%
PG-246.9%-245.1%-210.8%-166.2%-59582.8%
SHW-449.0%-446.6%-385.4%-290.5%-230868.3%
TRV-422.1%-420.1%-381.2%-306.1%-12256.6%
UNH-401.4%-396.6%-343.4%-302.9%-351833.8%
V-543.9%-542.5%-501.9%-409.6%-2753.6%
WMT-607.6%-602.9%-540.8%-483.1%-910844.2%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-317.0%-313.9%-275.7%-121.9%-143774.3%
ADI-814.6%-812.3%-753.2%-741.4%-81569.7%
ADP-441.3%-440.0%-355.9%-301.9%-73898.6%
ADSK-432.2%-422.3%-309.4%-341.4%-55578.3%
AEP-305.4%-301.7%-258.5%-141.1%-13359.4%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.9%-248.6%-142.5%-188.5%-3076.6%
AMAT-2817.9%-2804.2%-2512.2%-2543.2%-628200.9%
AMD-16807.9%-16332.9%-16242.5%-15258.5%+227473.5%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.7%-2154.1%-1941.9%-1805.7%-83926.7%
AVGO-3403.1%-3386.4%-3178.2%-3192.6%-32219.5%
AXON-3569.4%-3493.0%-2970.0%-3098.9%+10.3%
BKNG-421.6%-415.5%-299.9%-353.0%+2134.2%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-936.5%
CCEP-415.8%-413.5%-352.7%-299.4%-6843.2%
CDNS-1658.0%-1651.3%-1508.7%-1386.0%-15834.7%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.8%-135.1%-116.5%-67.6%-46523.0%
COST-707.4%-700.4%-572.7%-462.5%-12573.9%
CPRT-700.6%-695.5%-501.9%-358.0%-20209.2%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.6%-694.9%-601.1%-499.9%-40354.2%
CTAS-1031.2%-1024.1%-843.7%-727.8%-122125.4%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.8%-459.7%-367.8%+48.4%-2720.3%
EA————n/a
EXC-318.9%-317.5%-283.4%-235.4%-16556.9%
FANG-393.3%-388.5%-336.9%-338.9%-1349.8%
FAST-656.9%-654.0%-589.0%-498.2%-262012.0%
FERn/an/an/an/a-563.2%
FTNT-2745.6%-2738.7%-2604.7%-2321.3%-9464.3%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-211.7%-178.6%-137.3%-33473.4%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.4%-777.5%-710.9%-621.9%-57866.4%
INTC-333.1%-329.2%-236.3%-188.3%-44326.4%
INTU-414.2%-409.4%-343.9%-334.3%-15278.0%
ISRG-612.6%-607.7%-565.6%-192.2%-16015.2%
KHC-56.8%-55.5%-36.5%+18.0%+6.1%
KLAC-3063.6%-3059.2%-2981.0%-2719.6%-286609.4%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10720.2%
LITE-4008.1%-4003.5%-3910.6%-3583.0%-4312.5%
LRCX-4481.4%-4473.8%-4254.6%-4187.3%-143371.6%
MAR-594.3%-584.7%-444.9%-482.7%-2423.1%
MCHP-391.6%-383.8%-277.8%-286.2%-41933.9%
MDLZ-182.0%-180.5%-154.4%-127.8%-517.8%
MELI-1800.1%-1778.5%-1627.2%-1447.8%-5116.7%
META-570.4%-564.9%-452.7%-442.1%-423.9%
MNST-194.8%-193.6%-129.3%-64.7%-59335.6%
MPWR-2250.5%-2243.2%-2202.5%-2045.7%-13882.3%
MRVL-2679.8%-2672.5%-2566.7%-2461.2%-825.9%
MSTR-743.9%-725.5%+469.8%+240.2%+2601.9%
MU-6675.8%-6583.3%-6248.7%-6362.1%-39278.9%
NFLX-743.2%-738.1%-513.1%-422.2%-60546.2%
NXPI-300.5%-299.0%-265.2%-241.3%-1590.2%
ODFL-1063.8%-1054.8%-927.5%-890.9%-36530.1%
ORLY-539.4%-536.1%-488.6%-443.1%-54837.0%
PANW-1299.9%-1291.9%-1106.9%-1124.8%-3827.2%
PCAR-580.1%-578.0%-502.7%-402.8%-56586.4%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-195.7%-149.0%-120.0%-37657.5%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.8%-153.5%-120.4%-24.4%-50.0%
QCOM-438.6%-435.9%-334.0%-188.3%-47782.2%
REGN-155.2%-153.9%-129.8%-64.6%-3607.3%
ROP-244.2%-243.2%-185.6%-134.1%-25392.5%
ROST-465.7%-461.9%-432.5%-328.5%-52132.2%
SBUX-232.0%-229.6%-210.9%-162.7%-42011.2%
SHOP-5944.8%-5622.2%-5699.1%-5109.2%-7825.5%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-985.3%-974.6%-859.8%-657.3%-5528.4%
STX-3652.5%-3640.3%-3443.2%-3129.2%-91.8%
TER-1857.0%-1851.6%-1658.6%-1505.0%-13900.2%
TMUS-489.7%-487.6%-419.2%-409.1%-253.9%
TRI-362.7%-356.2%-283.8%-145.1%-591.6%
TSLA-2341.5%-794.4%-891.4%-1077.6%-21076.7%
TTWO-688.9%-687.2%-658.7%-596.3%-5394.6%
TXN-637.7%-636.7%-570.5%-572.9%-36770.2%
VRTX-440.8%-439.3%-416.2%-411.7%-11996.8%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-185.2%
WDAY-263.3%-258.5%-185.4%-179.6%-292.4%
WDC-1171.5%-1156.9%-1023.2%-938.1%-53414.2%
XEL-295.9%-293.8%-244.2%-187.7%-7328.9%
KDP-278.1%-276.7%-237.4%-201.6%-938.9%
USD/MXN-135.0%-126.1%-99.9%-50.4%-13.7%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18067.7%-16263.1%+11064.3%
Ether————n/a

5 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 11 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
tenkan 9, kijun 26, senkou_b_period 52303.6%0.07-32.3%-2777.4%
tenkan 7, kijun 22, senkou_b_period 44302.5%0.07-40.6%-2778.6%
tenkan 10, kijun 30, senkou_b_period 60574.5%0.21-33.6%-2506.5%
tenkan 20, kijun 60, senkou_b_period 120540.9%0.19-38.7%-2540.2%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 20%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.51 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+99.6% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+102.2% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 20% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 3.427.

OOS Sharpe far exceeds IS (>ceiling) — likely a lucky short OOS window, not genuine generalization.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 3da70cf34031 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 33 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Ichimoku: buy above the cloud: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud

Reproduce it with your own strategy