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Finaxion Research · Ichimoku: buy above the cloud · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on ASML?

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -7.8 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
×125
Buy and hold
×964
CAGR
16.6%
Sharpe
0.52
Max drawdown
-74.9%
Trades
426
Out of sample
partly
Years
31
1×10×100×997×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyASML

Findings

  1. Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -7.8 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +5.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×125 versus ×964 for buy-and-hold, with 426 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -74.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #11 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ASML over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ASML → · Full page for Ichimoku: buy above the cloud →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on ASML?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud/asml

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.