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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on NVDA?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on NVDA: -23.0 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
×36
Buy and hold
×5 878
CAGR
13.9%
Sharpe
0.42
Max drawdown
-72.3%
Trades
546
Out of sample
partly
Years
28
1×10×100×1000×5878×20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyNVDA

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on NVDA: -23.0 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +5.2 points a year.
  3. Total return ×36 versus ×5 878 for buy-and-hold, with 546 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -72.3%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #11 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NVDA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NVDA → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on NVDA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/nvda

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.