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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on INCY?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on INCY: -2.5 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×31
Buy and hold
×66
CAGR
11.1%
Sharpe
0.36
Max drawdown
-88.0%
Trades
581
Out of sample
partly
Years
33
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyINCY

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on INCY: -2.5 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +0.2 points a year.
  3. Total return ×31 versus ×66 for buy-and-hold, with 581 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -88.0%.
  6. It beat before 2010 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #20 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding INCY over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on INCY → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on INCY?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/incy

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.