FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on ASML?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -16.7 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
933.6%
Buy and hold
×964
CAGR
7.7%
Sharpe
0.27
Max drawdown
-78.8%
Trades
644
Out of sample
partly
Years
31
1×10×100×997×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyASML

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -16.7 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -3.3 points a year.
  3. Total return +933.6% versus ×964 for buy-and-hold, with 644 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -78.8%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #40 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ASML over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ASML → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on ASML?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/asml

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.