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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on FDS?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on FDS: -10.6 points a year over 30 years.

Total return
416.1%
Buy and hold
×92
CAGR
5.6%
Sharpe
0.18
Max drawdown
-80.2%
Trades
581
Out of sample
overfit
Years
30
1×10×100×140×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyFDS

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on FDS: -10.6 points a year over 30 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.7 points a year.
  3. Total return +416.1% versus ×92 for buy-and-hold, with 581 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -80.2%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #61 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FDS over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FDS → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on FDS?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/fds

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.