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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on HII?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on HII: -9.0 points a year over 15 years.

Total return
182.9%
Buy and hold
883.6%
CAGR
7.0%
Sharpe
0.24
Max drawdown
-36.6%
Trades
302
Out of sample
—
Years
15
1×10×20122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyHII

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on HII: -9.0 points a year over 15 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.2 points a year.
  3. Total return +182.9% versus +883.6% for buy-and-hold, with 302 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -36.6%.
  5. It did not beat before 2018 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #102 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding HII over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on HII → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on HII?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/hii

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.