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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on ICE?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on ICE: -12.5 points a year over 21 years.

Total return
128.9%
Buy and hold
×24
CAGR
4.1%
Sharpe
0.12
Max drawdown
-75.2%
Trades
431
Out of sample
overfit
Years
21
1×10×27×20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyICE

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on ICE: -12.5 points a year over 21 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +128.9% versus ×24 for buy-and-hold, with 431 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -75.2%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2016).
  7. It ranks #100 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ICE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ICE → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on ICE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/ice

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.