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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on KEYS?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on KEYS: -16.0 points a year over 12 years.

Total return
117.9%
Buy and hold
×11
CAGR
6.8%
Sharpe
0.23
Max drawdown
-39.5%
Trades
234
Out of sample
—
Years
12
0.8×1×6.8×12.7×201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyKEYS

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on KEYS: -16.0 points a year over 12 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +117.9% versus ×11 for buy-and-hold, with 234 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -39.5%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2020).
  6. It ranks #108 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding KEYS over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on KEYS → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on KEYS?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/keys

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.