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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on NCLH?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) beats buy-and-hold on NCLH by +7.3 points a year over 14 years.

Total return
74.6%
Buy and hold
-34.9%
CAGR
4.2%
Sharpe
0.19
Max drawdown
-61.5%
Trades
252
Out of sample
—
Years
14
0.4×1×1.5×2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyNCLH

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) beats buy-and-hold on NCLH by +7.3 points a year over 14 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +74.6% versus -34.9% for buy-and-hold, with 252 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -61.5%.
  5. It did not beat before 2019 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #182 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NCLH over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NCLH → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on NCLH?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/nclh

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.