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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on PANW?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on PANW: -18.8 points a year over 14 years.

Total return
379.8%
Buy and hold
×43
CAGR
11.8%
Sharpe
0.41
Max drawdown
-47.9%
Trades
266
Out of sample
—
Years
14
1×10×20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyPANW

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on PANW: -18.8 points a year over 14 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -3.2 points a year.
  3. Total return +379.8% versus ×43 for buy-and-hold, with 266 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -47.9%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2019).
  6. It ranks #39 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PANW over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PANW → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on PANW?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/panw

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.