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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on PODD?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on PODD: -3.3 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
422.8%
Buy and hold
831.5%
CAGR
9.0%
Sharpe
0.30
Max drawdown
-69.1%
Trades
360
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×21×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyPODD

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on PODD: -3.3 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -1.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +422.8% versus +831.5% for buy-and-hold, with 360 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -69.1%.
  5. It beat before 2017 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #29 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PODD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PODD → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on PODD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/podd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.