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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -8.8 points a year over 34 years.

Total return
95.0%
Buy and hold
×32
CAGR
2.0%
Sharpe
0.03
Max drawdown
-78.7%
Trades
36740
Out of sample
—
Years
34
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyCartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -8.8 points a year over 34 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +95.0% versus ×32 for buy-and-hold, with 36740 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -78.7%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
  6. It ranks #140 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/portfolio-spx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.