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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on SW?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on SW: -7.9 points a year over 18 years.

Total return
131.3%
Buy and hold
775.0%
CAGR
4.7%
Sharpe
0.17
Max drawdown
-74.7%
Trades
302
Out of sample
—
Years
18
1×200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategySW

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on SW: -7.9 points a year over 18 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.3 points a year.
  3. Total return +131.3% versus +775.0% for buy-and-hold, with 302 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -74.7%.
  5. It beat before 2017 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #104 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SW over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SW → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on SW?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/sw

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.