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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on TRI?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on TRI: -7.2 points a year over 24 years.

Total return
29.2%
Buy and hold
578.4%
CAGR
1.1%
Sharpe
-0.09
Max drawdown
-54.5%
Trades
500
Out of sample
overfit
Years
24
1×6.7×200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyTRI

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on TRI: -7.2 points a year over 24 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +29.2% versus +578.4% for buy-and-hold, with 500 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -54.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2014).
  7. It ranks #159 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TRI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TRI → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on TRI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/tri

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.