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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on UAL?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on UAL: -3.6 points a year over 21 years.

Total return
66.5%
Buy and hold
240.6%
CAGR
2.5%
Sharpe
0.19
Max drawdown
-91.6%
Trades
390
Out of sample
partly
Years
21
1×4×2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyUAL

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on UAL: -3.6 points a year over 21 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.7 points a year.
  3. Total return +66.5% versus +240.6% for buy-and-hold, with 390 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -91.6%.
  6. It beat before 2016 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #132 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding UAL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on UAL → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on UAL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/ual

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.