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Finaxion Research · The MACD cross (12/26/9) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on XYZ?

The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on XYZ: -8.1 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
192.4%
Buy and hold
527.5%
CAGR
10.5%
Sharpe
0.35
Max drawdown
-83.6%
Trades
195
Out of sample
—
Years
11
1×10×21×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyXYZ

Findings

  1. The MACD cross (12/26/9) does not beat buy-and-hold on XYZ: -8.1 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.2 points a year.
  3. Total return +192.4% versus +527.5% for buy-and-hold, with 195 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -83.6%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2021).
  6. It ranks #51 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 71812b470df2.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the MACD(12,26) line is above its signal(9); flat when below. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding XYZ over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on XYZ → · Full page for The MACD cross (12/26/9) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the MACD cross (12/26/9) work on XYZ?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 71812b470df2. https://finaxion.app/en/research/classic-macd/xyz

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.