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Finaxion Research · Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles work on DECK?

Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles does not beat buy-and-hold on DECK: -16.0 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
-50.5%
Buy and hold
×71
CAGR
-2.1%
Sharpe
0.06
Max drawdown
-88.2%
Trades
2316
Out of sample
overfit
Years
33
0.1×1×10×100×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyDECK

Findings

  1. Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles does not beat buy-and-hold on DECK: -16.0 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -12.9 points a year.
  3. Total return -50.5% versus ×71 for buy-and-hold, with 2316 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -88.2%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #133 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2aad8ceec7e6.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the Heikin Ashi candle is bullish (HA close above HA open); exit on the first bearish candle.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding DECK over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on DECK → · Full page for Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles work on DECK?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2aad8ceec7e6. https://finaxion.app/en/research/heikin-ashi/deck

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.