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Finaxion Research · Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles work on TTWO?

Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles does not beat buy-and-hold on TTWO: -13.3 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
50.1%
Buy and hold
×56
CAGR
1.4%
Sharpe
0.10
Max drawdown
-65.4%
Trades
1945
Out of sample
overfit
Years
29
1×10×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyTTWO

Findings

  1. Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles does not beat buy-and-hold on TTWO: -13.3 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.7 points a year.
  3. Total return +50.1% versus ×56 for buy-and-hold, with 1945 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -65.4%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #59 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2aad8ceec7e6.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the Heikin Ashi candle is bullish (HA close above HA open); exit on the first bearish candle.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TTWO over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TTWO → · Full page for Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles work on TTWO?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2aad8ceec7e6. https://finaxion.app/en/research/heikin-ashi/ttwo

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.