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Finaxion Research · Ichimoku: buy above the cloud · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on ALL?

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on ALL: -10.6 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
38.5%
Buy and hold
×38
CAGR
1.0%
Sharpe
-0.08
Max drawdown
-60.3%
Trades
477
Out of sample
overfit
Years
33
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyALL

Findings

  1. Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on ALL: -10.6 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +38.5% versus ×38 for buy-and-hold, with 477 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -60.3%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #175 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ALL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ALL → · Full page for Ichimoku: buy above the cloud →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on ALL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud/all

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.