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Finaxion Research · Ichimoku: buy above the cloud · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on MSCI?

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on MSCI: -15.3 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
87.8%
Buy and hold
×25
CAGR
3.4%
Sharpe
0.08
Max drawdown
-58.0%
Trades
248
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×28×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyMSCI

Findings

  1. Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on MSCI: -15.3 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +87.8% versus ×25 for buy-and-hold, with 248 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -58.0%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #141 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MSCI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MSCI → · Full page for Ichimoku: buy above the cloud →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on MSCI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud/msci

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.