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Finaxion Research · Ichimoku: buy above the cloud · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on STX?

Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on STX: +0.0 points a year over 24 years.

Total return
×156
Buy and hold
×157
CAGR
23.8%
Sharpe
0.71
Max drawdown
-49.4%
Trades
242
Out of sample
overfit
Years
24
1×10×100×200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategySTX

Findings

  1. Ichimoku: buy above the cloud does not beat buy-and-hold on STX: +0.0 points a year over 24 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +12.3 points a year.
  3. Total return ×156 versus ×157 for buy-and-hold, with 242 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -49.4%.
  6. It beat before 2014 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #5 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 3da70cf34031.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above both cloud spans (Senkou A and B; 9/26/52); exit when the close drops below either.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding STX over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on STX → · Full page for Ichimoku: buy above the cloud →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Ichimoku: buy above the cloud work on STX?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 3da70cf34031. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ichimoku-cloud/stx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.